Friday, April 27, 2012

New Gallup poll: Young people may be less excited turn out for Obama in 2012

ABC News reports on another less optimistic poll for the Obama campaign:
President Obama may still have the support of the youth population, but will they turn out to vote for him? A new poll indicates that is uncertain. A Gallup poll conducted earlier this week surveyed voter registration and likelihood to vote, broken down by age groups. Among the 18-29 set, 60 percent indicated that they are registered to vote. Obama enjoys a wide lead over Romney in this age group: 64 percent support Obama while only 29 percent support Romney. However, when asked if they definitely will vote in the general election, only 56 percent replied yes.
Nonetheless, as the Washington Post explained this week, youth turnout was not the decisive asset for the 2008 Obama team's electoral math (though the size of the millennial vote did top that of recent presidential contests).

Rather, it was the proportion of young voters who favored then then Democratic candidate Obama over Republican McCain (a 2/3 Obama vote, according to exit polls). This margin was particularly relevant in 08's swing-states, and remains ever so crucial this year.

Over at CNN, I broke down President Obama's campus tour and message to young Americans. Happy weekend reading! Wesley, what is your reaction to the flurry of recent surveys indicating young people's waning - or at least less fiery - support for the President?

Monday, April 23, 2012

Headlines of economic gloom that cry for young people's political engagement - and for President Obama to reach deeper to connect with millennials

Associated Press: Half of new graduates are jobless or underemployed.
The U.S. college class of 2012 is in for a rude welcome to the world of work.Young adults with bachelor's degrees are increasingly scraping by in lower-wage jobs — waiter or waitress, bartender, retail clerk or receptionist, for example — and that's confounding their hopes a degree would pay off despite higher tuition and mounting student loans.
CNBC: Gen Y May Face Least Secure Retirement
Enter Generation Y. Roughly between 18 and 34 years old, this generation's table is wobbling on its last two legs: a job and a 401(k), which are co-dependent. Thus instead of protection, Gen Yers have inherited a great deal of pressure. More than ever, they know they better be employable, and they better be skilled 401(k) investors. The trouble is, it is quite difficult to do this when faced with high unemployment, and ever-higher student loan debt. 

According to the Congressional Budget Office's annual report on Social Security solvency, in 2023 trust fund assets will start to diminish until they become exhausted in 2036 — well before Gen Yers even contemplate retiring. 
The article ends with the notion that - if young Americans want to flourish in the Golden Years of retirement - they "better be a [Warren] Buffett." This is a nightmarish glimpse into the extinction of the 99% for most Americans. What every happened to the middle-class?

Amid economic hardship for millennials, President Obama is rocking the campus vote with visionary leadership on...the single loan issue?

Christian Science Monitor: Student loans: Obama's bid to rekindle 'Yes We Can' among youths.
Young voters aren't as enthusiastic as they were four years ago, meaning turnout could decline. So Obama is touring universities in North Carolina, Colorado, and Iowa to talk about student loans.
The expiration of a law that cuts interest rates for students is set to expire...and Obama is listening to young people's need for those rates to remain at 3.4 percent (and not jump back to just under 7).

But to galvanize the youth vote anew in 2012, when their economic livelihood is at stake, he'll have to reach deeper than loans that to connect with millenials. If he doesn't, he'll be missing the boat - beyond just this cycle's youth vote.