Pew is right: Gen Y leans to the left

That's a bit of a loaded question.

Sure, many of the Pew Center's findings paint a very specific picture of Generation Y, but in totality, I think most findings from their report ring true.

Let's take, for example, one of the opening sections of the report:

Generations, like people, have personalities, and Millennials — the American teens and twenty-somethings who are making the passage into adulthood at the start of a new millennium — have begun to forge theirs: confident, self-expressive, liberal, upbeat and open to change. They are more ethnically and racially diverse than older adults. They’re less religious, less likely to have served in the military, and are on track to become the most educated generation in American history. Their entry into careers and first jobs has been badly set back by the Great Recession, but they are more upbeat than their elders about their own economic futures...

There shouldn't be any debate that millennials are confident and self-expressive. That's due, in large part, to the fact that Gen Y is the first to grow up with both computers and the Internet — which has enabled digital natives, from an extremely young age, to communicate (as well as to broadcast and share our opinions) with others from across the country or globe instantaneously.

Millennials are certainly more inclined to be moderate-to-liberal on the political sphere than the generation of their parents. Take, for example, two of the most hot-button social issues of our time: abortion and gay marriage.

In today's hyper-social world, many are sharing more about their personal lives than once was considered appropriate. Virtually every college student I know, regardless of his or her politics, knows someone who has had an abortion. Thirty years ago, that wouldn't have been the case because the social stigma associated with that type of procedure would have been enough to make sure that it was hush-hush (even to a person in her social circle).

Meanwhile, as gay marriage has become legal in more states (including Washington, earlier this week), and as gay Americans like Rachel Maddow take a more public role in the media, in popular culture or in public office, Americans are becoming much more accepting.

In many cases, even the most conservative members of a college campus have become comfortable around gay and lesbian students — and probably count a few of them within their group of friends, which forty or fifty years ago would not have been the case.

Notice I keep bringing up "college campuses," because these social-demographic shifts are connected to Pew's assertion that Gen Y will become the most educated of any generation.

With the mass exit of manufacturing jobs, a college degree is now a necessity in order to achieve success in this country. And, as other studies have found, incoming college freshmen are showing up on campus increasingly left-leaning, and moving even further to the left — in many cases — by the end of their college tenures.

Overall, I think the Pew report hits the nail on the head in describing the new generation of young people. What do you think, Alexander?

Will President Obama continue to 'appeal to key youth vote'?

If he hammers home an education strategy and expounds on it from now until November, President Obama could win young people back to the political process. The question, then, is will it translate into enough activity at the polling station? And, will it be enough to secure his victory?

We both have argued that it is a make-or-break electoral facet of this campaign. A constant education-driven strategy to court young people will work, in my judgment, and could convert the Occupy sentiments into a tangible pro-Obama presence on the campaign trail. In short, the President needs to hit the road, as he did at the University of Michigan, for many months: amassing new momentum that builds off his Ann Arbor appearance and AFP headline: OBAMA APPEALS TO KEY YOUTH VOTE.

But, not so fast: As the Fort Myers, Fl.-based News-Press, a Gannett paper, has reported, the campaign excitement, neither for Obama nor the GOP frontrunners, has "created a stir on campus."

A wave of enthusiasm from college-age voters helped carry Barack Obama to the White House in 2008, but the excitement young adults had then is less apparent as the 2012 presidential election approaches – at least on the FGCU campus.

In the story, students of Florida Gulf Coast University express dissatisfaction with partisan politics and reluctance to engage in Tuesday's GOP primary or in the campaign beyond. Returning to our theme of education, one student points to the political illiteracy of students (rather than their disillusionment) as the source of apathy.

Joseph Russo, an FGCU senior majoring in political science, said he is displeased with the way students view government.“People are not all apathetic, they are just politically illiterate,” said Russo, who said he already has cast his ballot for Mitt Romney. “When you are talking about the young vote, you are not talking about the most politically educated vote.”

As Forbes contributor Peter Reilly writes about young people's relationships with business (in the corporate realm), "hooking up with Gen Y" can happen quickly and then sporadically on an off-and-on basis. But prolonged engagement with millennials is a trickier proposition. In the political sphere, where there is a candidate (not a high-tech product) and one whose policies haven't been visible enough in their daily lives, it is even for youth to rationalize their absence on Election Day.

Wes, the Pew Internet & American Life Project has created an online infographic (below) to visibly highlight the Center's research on the up and coming generation. This companion to their full report, "Millennials: Confident. Connected. Open to Change," data is useful to examine. Here is the first two paragraphs of their executive summary, with critical data points in bold.

Generations, like people, have personalities, and Millennials — the American teens and twenty-somethings who are making the passage into adulthood at the start of a new millennium — have begun to forge theirs: confident, self-expressive, liberal, upbeat and open to change. They are more ethnically and racially diverse than older adults. They’re less religious, less likely to have served in the military, and are on track to become the most educated generation in American history. Their entry into careers and first jobs has been badly set back by the Great Recession, but they are more upbeat than their elders about their own economic futures...

They embrace multiple modes of self-expression. Three-quarters have created a profile on a social networking site. One-in-five have posted a video of themselves online. Nearly four-in-ten have a tattoo (and for most who do, one is not enough: about half of those with tattoos have two to five and 18% have six or more). Nearly one-in-four have a piercing in some place other than an earlobe — about six times the share of older adults who’ve done this. But their look-at-me tendencies are not without limits. Most Millennials have placed privacy boundaries on their social media profiles. And 70% say their tattoos are hidden beneath clothing.

Wes, based on your reading on this Pew report, both the summary and the graphic below, what is most MISLEADING about their findings, particularly in the context of youth's role in the 2012 campaign? 


Created by: Online Graduate Programs

Education platform: The winning strategy for winning young voters

What does Obama do next? Exactly more of what he's been doing since his State of the Union address.

In a speech he delivered earlier today at the University of Michigan, Obama stressed the importance of increasing college affordability.

As we both argued in today's Boston Globe, the perfect campaign strategy in order to attract young voters is one that involves an aggressive effort to take on the continually sky-rocketing cost of an American college education. 

The 19 GOP debates have been void of any discussion of the country's education policy, which may be the reason why most of the Republican candidates have been largely unable to mobilize a significant number of young voters.

Meanwhile, President Obama has rolled out a comprehensive college affordability platform, which includes incentives for colleges that offer standardized student aid forms.

Here's how The New York Times characterized Obama's education proposals:

Under the plan, which the president outlined on Friday morning in a speech at the University of Michigan, the amount available for Perkins loans would grow to $8 billion, from the current $1 billion. The president also wants to create a $1 billion grant competition, along the lines of the Race for the Top program for elementary and secondary education, to reward states that take action to keep college costs down, and a separate $55 million competition for individual colleges to increase their value and efficiency.

The administration also wants to give families clearer information about costs and quality, by requiring colleges and universities to offer a “shopping sheet” that makes it easier to compare financial aid packages and — for the first time — compiling post-graduate earning and employment information to give students a better sense of what awaits them.

For me, encouraging colleges to standardize the complicated and confusing forms required for students to qualify for aid is a major step toward solving the economic inequality that plaques the nation's education system.

Even if all of the details aren't worked out yet, positioning education in the forefront of his election-year policy proposals is extremely wise. While a divided Congress may refuse to pass forthcoming Obama education proposals, this is precisely the kind of plan that will bolster his support among young voters.

And with an articulate messenger, Obama's education speeches are going to resonate with most young voters. Here's an excerpt from the Detroit News coverage of his remarks.

This is going to be one of the most important issues that not just you face but everyone in the entire country faces."

School officials estimated the crowd at Al Glick Field House to be roughly 4,000. Many of those in attendance had waited hours in line overnight Wednesday to get their tickets the following morning. And many others began lining up in the rain and snow for Friday's general admission appearance the night before.

Drawing on his own experience and that of first lady Michelle Obama, the president told that crowd: "Your president and your first lady were in your shoes, not that long ago. We didn't come from wealthy families. The only way we were able to achieve what we achieved is because we got a great education. We could not have done that unless we lived in a country that made a commitment to opening up that opportunity to all people."

Obama's comments come as the average tuition at public universities in Michigan more than doubled over the last decade. In 2002, the average cost for a resident undergraduate student was $4,945, according to the House Fiscal Agency. In 2012, the average cost is $10,416.

Like I said earlier in this post and in earlier SCOOP2012 chronicles, if Obama hammers home an education platform he will ensure his re-election. Do you agree, Alexander?

Santorum embraces millennial view of fair taxation during final Florida debate

Wes, I'm going to react briefly to last night's debate, but, if you will, do remember the question I raised in my previous post: On the heels of his State of the Union, what does President Obama do next to galvanize young people anew?

The Republicans didn't service themselves particularly well with young voters last night. In fact, they will find it more and more challenging to connect with them as they lurch further to the right on the now mainstream GOP plank of little-to-no taxation for the very rich.

If anyone championed a populist economic message yesterday that could sway the youth vote, it's actually the most socially-conservative Republican candidate: Rick Santorum. He grew up in the the most humble circumstances, the son of an Italian immigration, among the remaining GOP hopefuls.

In the debate, he proposed a tax overhaul as a simplification for working-class families, not as an elimination of the taxation commitment from the wealthy.

And so what I believe is we need to reduce taxes. I don't -- look, I'm honest. I don't reduce the higher -- top rate as much as these other folks do. I take the Reagan approach. Ronald Reagan had a 28 percent top rate. If it was good enough for Ronald Reagan, it's good enough for me. And that's what we put the top rate as. And -- and we have a bottom rate of 10 percent. I believe in a differential. I don't believe in a flat tax. I believe in a simplified tax code with five deductions and -- and focus on simplify, creating two rates.

I disagree with Newt also on this. I don't believe in a zero capital gains tax rate. I don't think you need to get to zero to make sure that there's an efficient deployment of capital and investment. I think, if you get to zero, then, in fact, guys like Mitt Romney, who, again, I give him -- I wish I made as much money as Mitt Romney, but...

On the subject of generational debt, he also articulates a central millennial concern: that D.C. pols are stealing Gen Y's future, by virtue of massive debt that will be impossible to pay off.  If he coupled this  with directly targeting young people's concerns, like rising college tuition, more directly, he would have a better shot at overtaking Paul or Gingrich's prowess with young voters.

But he he hasn't to date. In fact, young people have taken Santorum to task for his criticism of Obama's dream for all young people to graduate from college.

Once again, compared to the gravitas of Obama's State of the Union, the Republicans looked more trivial than presidential on the stage last night. Overall, how did you, SCOOP2012 readers, assess the GOP's chatter on some of the domestic issues related to young people, ones the president raised in depth during this week's SOTU?

For youth's sustained 2012 campaign attention, medium is NOT more important than message

Tonight's debate is important to young Hispanic voters but it is not nearly as crucial as continued economic relief for struggling twentysomthings. Short of a "Celebrity Deathmatch" between GOP frontrunners Romney and Gingrich, young people will likely glaze over the TV in the never-ending waiting-game of real solutions. 

I agree with much of what Peter Levine of Tufts University's CIRCLE (The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement) writes. Levine and his organization do a impressive job amassing and analyzing the raw data of the youth vote. Suffice to say, he's doing critical and terribly overlooked work.

But I disagree adamantly with their "Getting Out the Youth Vote" and the age-old assertion that "medium is more important than message." Reminding the candidates, politicians and media of that is a recipe for greater disenchantment over the long haul.  The fact that youth joblessness and homelessness remain so prevalent, that college-aged millennials are so debt- and loan-ridden and that entire generation is encumbered with a massive deficit all mean that Gen Y craves real policy-driven rhetoric.

There may be statistics to justify CIRCLE's claim - and it is certainly true that the Web is the optimal medium through which to connect to young voters - but it is a notion that dumbs-down the discourse for young Americans and steers it away from their concerns. Young people would participate in the electoral process at a vastly greater rate if the candidates substantively (not superficially) grappled with their concerns.

In The Detroit News, Kim Kozlowski reports on the nostalgically vibrant youth empowerment of the 2008 political cycle.

During the 2008 presidential election, an estimated 22 million people under age 30 voted — an increase of 2 million over 2004...It was one of the highest numbers of young voters ever recorded...Youth voters preferred Obama over Republican nominee, Arizona U.S. Sen. John McCain, by a 2-to-1 margin.

She also accurately reports that the honeymoon for Obama is long over. But she does report one unsubstantiated claim with which I would take serious issue: "But some say that it's still early to get students engaged."

It's never too early, in my opinion, Wes. If President Obama doesn't hit campuses across the country, pitching his economic populist message, he risks permanently disenfranchising a vital piece of his 2008 base. 

As Stephen Richer of Forbes writes, Obama must soon embark on re-creating his youth army. Enthusiasm ebbed precipitously during the 2010 midterms among young people, and a result, Obama has to bring young people back into the

Future Majority's Sarah Burris, as we did yesterday, sums up how Obama's SOTU was an appeal to young voters:

• “most daunting challenge can be the cost of college. At a time when Americans owe more in tuition debt than credit card debt”
• “Congress needs to stop the interest rates on student loans from doubling in July”
• “Higher education can’t be a luxury – it’s an economic imperative that every family in America should be able to afford”
• “states also need to do their part, by making higher education a higher priority in their budgets”
• “After all, innovation is what America has always been abt Most new jobs are created in start-ups and small businesses”

That was a start, Wes; what does President Obama do next to galvanize young people anew?

Can Romney win Florida? He'll need to carry more young Republicans.

Certainly a great speech by the incumbent.

What's easy to forget with regard to Obama is that many of the people who decry his leadership, blame him for the country's economic woes and who vow not to support him were never going to vote for him anyway. The bulk of the vocal criticism being leveled at the president is coming from avowed Republicans — especially because many of them have been mobilized by the Republican primary.

But it's foolish to believe that Obama will bend over and take it from a weak GOP nominee. The key for a Republican victory come November is who the party ultimately nominates.

Since South Carolina, it's been all-Gingrich, all-the-time, but that could be changing soon.

The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog declared earlier today that Romney is again the front runner in Florida. Here's what they had to say:

The complication in Florida is that there are two conflicting trends. It should be quite obvious that Mr. Gingrich’s position is much stronger than it was before last Monday, when his support began rising sharply in state and national polls after his strong performance in a debate in Myrtle Beach, S.C.

However, it looks as though Mr. Gingrich’s surge may have reached its apogee over the weekend — timed perfectly for his big win in South Carolina, but not necessarily for one in Florida next week.

Earlier this week, I wrote that Gingrich was posed to lock down the Latino vote in Florida, although, some new polling today disputes my analysis.

According to a new ABC News/Univision News poll, 35 percent of Hispanic Republicans in Florida said they'd back Romney while only 20 percent said they support Gingrich.

Given the importance of the Hispanic vote in Florida, who is your favorite to win the Sunshine State? Alexander, how big of a factor will tomorrow night's debate play?

Among the Latino voters in the Sunshine State, 35 percent of Hispanic Republicans said they would back Romney, compared to 20 percent who said they would vote for Gingrich, an ABC News/Univision News survey found Wednesday. However, about one in five Hispanic GOPers in the state said they were still undecided.

Read more here (via Politico).

President Obama's State of the Union: An opening act to renew his contract with young voters

I've said before that that in the hyper-toxic political and economic atmosphere of 2012 for young voters, President Obama must deliver more than fire-in-his-belly inspiring rhetoric in order to reconnect with the youth demographic.

In yesterday's State of the Union address, he did precisely what the doctor prescribed to re-engage millennials.

The President offered (speech text) a strategic, policy-centric path forward for young people, the foundation of what he needs to be a lively, protracted dialogue with American young people that re-energizes them. The result for Team Obama would be another historically significant youth turnout favoring the Democratic ticket.

In his speech, he championed a rare breed of unifying hopeful populism that embodied a maturation of his '08 message to young voters. In 2008 the President was fighting for a transformational opportunity; in 2012, he is fighting to build, sustain and protect equity - "fairness," as he echoed numerous times - in the American experience.

For young people, the vast majority of whom are in financial hardship, this message of bridging the wealth gap resonates. Their tax bracket should not require they pay the government at a disproportionate rate, a system that protects tax-sheltered millionaires.

President Obama's remarks were unusually, and happily for America's youth, millennial-centric. On the domestic front, as Wes noted, he focused most attention on education. So what specifically connected to young people:

- Support for the Dream Act and like-minded measures extending citizenship to undocumented college grads who are loyal Americans in good moral standing
- Commitment to expanding the prowess and reach of community colleges
- Pledge to cut government backing of universities if they hike tuition and/or cut financial aid 
- Promise to invest more dollars into innovative medical and high-tech research

Wes, at this point and for the foreseeable future, barring a major national calamity, I don't see Republicans making a dent in whatever remains of President Obama's active youth support on college campuses (obviously, including progressive activists).

But, I would make two points: 1) Continued negativity in the GOP primary campaign will likely spur young voters away from the ballot box come this fall. 2) If the economy becomes increasingly unstable - especially, if there are thousands more young people out of work - than the GOP could more effectively pounce on the president. Capitalizing on an ever crippled American economy, the Republican alternative to Obama could be viewed as a potentially more credible manager of the economy, even from the vantage point of liberal-leaning young voters.

(This Baltimore Sun story conveys the uphill battle Obama still faces, particularly in swing states like North Carolina and Nevada that count fewer registered young voters.)

A final summation on last night: President Obama gave a brilliantly constructed speech, an ode to American nationalism that positioned the president as the most forceful possible candidate on national security. More than just young military men and women will respond enthusiastically to his suggestion that the political universe - and America more broadly - take a cue from the collaborative, mission-oriented team-spirit of the nation's armed forces.

All and all, a good opening act for President Obama to renew his contract with America's youth. Et tu, Wes? 

To many young voters, President Obama's populist pitch is perfect

Republicans knew this day would come.

The day when all of their remarks about teleprompters and boasts about how they "can't wait" to debate President Obama are laughably empty statements.

As he took the podium in the Congressional chambers this evening to deliver his 4th State of the Union address, President Barack Obama immediately returned to his 2008 campaign form. His speech relied heavily on his oft-preached ideal that his presidency is truly one of cooperation and teamwork, and that the United States is ready to transcend divisive partisan politics.

For our purposes here at SCOOP2012, Obama importantly addressed issues essential to young people that have remained more or less ignored by the GOP hopefuls.

1. Higher education

The subject of sky-high education costs in this country has rarely, if ever, come up during the GOP campaign for the nomination. In fact, I tweeted about 40 minutes into President Obama's speech that he had spent more time discussing education at that point than the Republicans had in nearly 20 debates.

"Higher education cannot be a luxury, it is an economic imperative" said Obama, whose rhetoric on higher ed struck a cord with the dozen or so young voters with whom I watched the debate.

Education is the SINGLE most important issue to young voters. And its quality, access and affordability are centrally tied to the economy. Right now, high school education in the U.S. is inefficient, and higher education in the U.S. is unaffordable. Unless the eventual GOP candidate articulates a specific plan to overhaul education, don't expect Obama to lose many of the eager young supporters he had in 2008 over this issue.

2. Health care

In this case, less was more. Obama said few sentences about health care, but his brevity set the tone that he will not allow "Obamacare" to be a campaign issue come 2012. Despite repeated calls for its repeal, Obama is wise to refuse to debate pieces of legislation that have already been past.

And while it's a focal point of the primary race, national health care may not be a major factor in the general election come November. As Phillip Klein writes in the Washington Examiner:

Interestingly, in his Republican response, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels didn't take the opportunity to go after Obamacare. This raises the question of whether both parties see health care as not a major issue during the 2012 election. Of course, this could all change depending on how the U.S. Supreme Court rules late this spring/early in the summer.

3. Post-partisan Washington D.C.

While most remember "Hope" and "Change" as the the go-to lines of the 2008 Obama campaign, one line that immediately reminded me of his first campaign's rally was "We must recognize that Washington is broken."

Obama hasn't been successful in ridding Washington of its silly and destructive partisan politics. But, at the end of the day, his tone of idealistic optimism is much more attractive than the negative fear-mongering being advanced by many in the GOP.

Although there is still work to be done (a piece in The New Yorker earlier this week did an excellent job of showing Obama's failed attempts at non-partisanship during his first term), most swing and youth voters are willing to believe that Obama has actually tried to change the culture in Washington D.C.

And the GOP must realize that painting Obama as a deliberately polarizing president is a losing strategy — that is, if they'd like to take the White House next year.

With that said, and after seeing our first glimpse of the Obama 2012 campaign strategy, Alexander: what do you think the GOP must do to convince young voters that Obama is all talk?

Why 'Obama the Populist' in 2012? It garnered 52% youth turnout for Clinton's 1992 pres. campaign.

What am I expecting from tonight's SOTU? That's a terribly difficult question to answer, Wes, because I am so uncertain of where President Obama's message will land next. He had a tough few months to end the year on a pretty dismal note. But better economic news combined with a GOP nominating implosion have cushioned his politically vulnerable position.

If the Obama campaign understands the likely trajectory of the campaign, they will take tonight as an opportunity, as they truly must, to showcase the president's populism, a trajectory launched from his Kansas speech in early December. As the Guardian reported, Obama "reprises themes of Theodore Roosevelt, decrying the 'you're on your own' economics of Republicans." 

As I type, The Wall Street Journal is reporting tonight's SOTU will, in fact, frame the election around the middle class, which may prove to be a successful focal point of President Obama's re-election bid.

WASHINGTON—President Barack Obama, in a speech that will amount to a nationally televised kickoff to his re-election campaign, intends to present the country with a populist economic vision in sharp contrast to his eventual Republican rival this November.

This is smart politics for the general electorate and specifically young voters, if you ask me. Before 2008, the most recent 50+% youth turnout (18-29 year-olds) was 1992, when President Clinton sold the recession-veering nation on the notion that he, too, felt their economic pain.



Now, Wes, you tell me: Who is the Obama, and who is the potential Romney in this picture? And how is this 99% versus 1% Obama argument, one that resonated across college campuses, complicated by a Gingrich nomination...or does the message of Democratic common man versus Republican elitist still ring true enough to young voters?

Florida debate reaction: Hispanic youth can't like what they're seeing

If the Latino journalists and pundits in my Twitter feeds had summarized their reactions to NBC's GOP presidential debate into three words, I think they'd be these:

"No nos gusta."

In what was easily the most gut-wrenchingly boring debate (and that's saying a lot...member that time when CNN's John King asked Michelle Bachmann if she preferred Elvis or Johnny Cash?) and when the candidates did venture into the issues of most importance to Hispanic voters, they offered horribly polarizing answers.

Gingrich defended insisting on English as the official language, Romney dropped the "self-deportation" line — the concept not only doesn't make much sense but also does little except disenfranchise Latino voters considering casting a ballot for Romney.

So far, Mother Jones has the most-detailed explanation of self-deportation that I've seen. But I'm sure there will be a flood of reporting and analysis of it published in the coming days.

Although he's certainly far left of the GOP debaters' target audience, former Washington Post journalist Jose Antonio Vargas used his Twitter account to voice the same discontent tonight that I was hearing in the heartland of Ohio.

Overall, neither of the frontrunners did much to win over Hispanic voters tonight - and Ron Paul and Rick Santorum offered little more than forgettable responses.

You ask, Alexander, if Hispanic voters hold the keys to the 2012 election. Winning them over does not — much like most demographics, they are already comfortable with their partisan loyalties – but the key is mobilization in vital swing states.

Take a look, for example, at the breakdown of currently registered Florida voters according to the Pew Research Center.

This year, there are 452,619 Latinos registered as Republicans in Florida (making up 11.1 percent of registered Republicans) compared to 564,413 who are registered as Democrats. That's virtually a 60/40 split — meaning that neither party has a monopoly on the Hispanic vote.

If GOP candidates continue to disenfranchise Latino voters, they're handing Obama the valuable electoral votes in states such as Florida, New Mexico and Arizona.

Looking forward, we've got two more major events this week. Obama delivers his State of the Union tomorrow night and the GOP hopefuls take the debate stage again of Thursday. Alexander, what are you expecting from POTUS tomorrow night?

The Elian Gonzalez generation is coming of age: How will they vote in Florida and beyond?

Connecting with young Hispanic voters is essential for the GOP, especially in Florida where the Elian Gonzalez generation of disenchanted Cuban-Americans is coming of age. The historical demographic breakdown in Florida, particularly the anti-Castro spirit,  is more ideologically aligned with the GOP...and therefore home plat in their bid to win Hispanic voters.

In 2008, President Obama's landslide victory included successful courtship of Hispanics and large turnout on Election Day. Obama overcame historical, if only rumored, rivalry between black and Hispanic political forces. He won an unlikely alliance with the Hispanic community, which became a vital piece of his base in the proverbial demographic pie chart.

Now there is less enthusiasm, according to the Pew Research Center:

President’s Approval Rating Drops, but He Leads 2012 Rivals

As Deportations Rise to Record Levels, Most Latinos Oppose Obama’s Policy

As Pew notes, however, Obama's Republican challengers are no more-Hispanic friendly.  Our friend Alex Katz reported in the Boston Globe that "Hispanic voters overwhelmingly support Obama over GOP contenders." 

You ask, Wes, what is the biggest factor that can meld the modern GOP into the party for (not against) Hispanics? They're going to have to better than "we love legal immigration," Romney's notoriously echoed (and repeated) taking point.

To maximize their potential to earn Hispanic cred in the general election, the Republicans need to survive the remainder of the primary without sounding any more xenophobic. Gingrich, specifically, will need to eliminate the food stamp issue from his political diatribe.

Second-generation children of immigration families will appreciate, perhaps even warm to, Gingrich's more compassionate and comprehensive attitude towards immigration than Romney, including desire to extend citizenship to undocumented residents who are long-standing, honorable members of American society).

But, historically, the Hispanic vote has slipped for Republican candidates who oppose economic intervention that aides their families. As the Associated Press recently reported, "In 2011, more than 45 million people — about one in seven Americans — received benefits from the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the most ever. Fewer than 31 million people collected the benefits about three years earlier."

Some of these recipients are Gen Y Hispanics, in Florida and elsewhere, and this reporting would suggest that economic solutions will trump memories of the Elian Gonzalez affair and the traditional GOP outrage against Cuba's Castro. If Gingrich can persuade Hispanic youth that he would create jobs better than Obama, than his vocal opposition to food stamps might have less consequence for these voters. But that's a huge IF.

In any case, many pundits arguing that Hispanics "hold the key" to the general election outcome. Wes, do you agree? Debate reactions, in the context of Florida's young and Hispanic, are to come. 

UPDATE: My discussion of the 2012 campaign on FOX-25 (Boston) is below. 

You decide: 2012 : MyFoxBOSTON.com

Hispanic vote vital to GOP win in Florida come 2012

In short, you want to know what Gingrich has got to do in order to win in Florida.

Despite riding high after last night's South Carolina victory, Gingrich still lacks the campaign cash and organization to make him a sure shot in Florida and other upcoming nominating contests.

But I think Gingrich is employing a winning strategy in the Sunshine State. It's worth noting that young voters will have very little impact in Florida - so much so that Ron Paul acknowledges his college-aged supporter base won't do him much good in Florida and is skipping the state all together.

Young voters have made up more than 10 percent of the electorate in all three contests thus far this year. But, in 2008, only 7% of Florida's GOP primary voters were under the age of 30. I don't expect much change from that trend this time around, especially given strict voter id laws passed earlier this year.

The key in the Sunshine State will be the Hispanic vote.

Florida will be the first time Hispanic voters get to weigh in during this election cycle, in which immigration enforcement has been one of the issues at the forefront of candidate debates.

Although he's yet to establish a ground game as elaborated as he had in South Carolina, Gingrich has been the only candidate actively wooing Hispanic voters - who make up more than 22 percent of Miami-Dade County, which is a GOP stronghold.

Gingrich's courting of Hispanic voters is no secret. Back in December The Washington Post quoted numerous Democratic strategists who openly speculated that if Gingrich lands atop the GOP ticket he could deeply chip away President Obama's stranglehold on Hispanic voters.

"...some Democrats worry, Gingrich could attract Hispanic swing voters disappointed in Obama’s immigration or economic policies.

“The possibility of a Gingrich nomination does scramble the deck, and it may mean that President Obama has to be more assertive on immigration issues,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, a liberal immigrant advocacy group.

Meanwhile, a strong GOP candidate whose is able to get his message to resonate with voters could upend the trend among Florida's Hispanic voters to lean to the left - specifically those of Puerto Rican descent. In fact, 2008 was a huge victory for Democrats - it was the first election cycle in which more Hispanic voters in Florida registered as Democrats then Republicans. (Politico published a detailed breakdown in the shifting demographics and political allegiances of Hispanic voters in Florida back in April).

Back in August, Gingrich outlined his plan for reaching Hispanic voters - who are a huge factor in important states beyond Florida, including Nevada, Colorado and Arizona.

Here's what he had to say:

Gingrich has yet to articulate detailed plans to address the issues most important to Hispanic voters - but the fact that he's talking about them at all gives him a huge leg up over his GOP counterparts.

But the biggest variable in the GOP candidates' abilities to connect with Hispanic voters may have nothing to do with them - and everything to do with who, if anyone, can court the support of two popular Hispanic leaders who've yet to endorse.

Popular Senator Marco Rubio has said he'll stay on the sidelines and not issue an endorsement in the GOP primary, meanwhile, Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuno has yet to throw his support behind any candidate.

If you don't know Fortuno's name, you'd be wise to familiarize yourself. Last summer I chronicled in The Wall Street Journal the epic housing and economic turnaround the articulate governor has overseen during his time leading Puerto Rico. A handful of GOP insiders I've spoken with include him on the VP shortlist - especially under a Gingrich or Paul candidacy.

So Alexander, what do you think is the biggest factor in winning the Hispanic vote for both the GOP primary candidates as well as for whoever is the eventual nominee?

GOP millennial view from S.C.: Gingrich's private life doesn't matter

Last night's results added more mystery to an already puzzling GOP primary showdown, the first in which a different candidate has won in each of the first three contests (Iowa, New Hampshire and now South Carolina).

First, to recap, exit polls indicate that young voters split across the South Carolina ballot in this fashion:

- Paul: 32%
- Gingrich: 27%
- Santorum: 22%
- Romney: 16%

Not only did Gingrich win with a surprisingly tall margin over standard-bearer Romney, he also came in second among young GOP voters. If there is one thing that these 18-30 results reaffirm, it's young people's general view that a candidate's private life, be it three marriages or closeted homosexuality, is just that...and does not determine the worth of a candidate.

(It is, nonetheless, difficult to understand how older devout Evangelicals swallowed "But, you wanted me all to yourself"...and reportedly delivering a speech on moral values after giving his wife an "open marriage" or divorce ultimatum.)

There is no doubt this will provoke a polling and, at least temporary fundraising surge for Gingrich. You ask if Gingrich can sustain the contributions in the money war to prevail against Romney: If he wins Florida, the money will flow just fine.

There are many Gingrich doubters based on his high unfavorable ratings. Many analysts have said they believe Romney would fare substantially better than Gingrich in a general election contest against President Obama.

This is not necessarily the case. First, the media may come to see Gingrich, if he plays his cards right, as a "big ideas" maverick a la McCain of 2000. (If he doesn't, he'll be the losing McCain of 2008.) He has challenged Obama to a series of seven Lincoln-Douglas debates, which would far better serve the democratic process than the premeditated commissioned debates.

To some, Gingrich will remain a dangerous quack. In some circles, he will stay much hated from the 90s. But to others, and perhaps to a majority of Americans who are being exposed to him for the first time, he come across as an unconventional statesman.

Romney, on the other hand, could never be the darling of the media. Both the media and voters believe he would say anything to be elected. This is the Gingrich general election advantage (one that could bode well for courting young people):

For an older man, he has far more charisma than McCain, and some of that *could* transcend party lines and age demographics. Wes, let me raise a more specific question for you on Gingrich and younger voters: How does he carve out a space for independent-minded youth (not just your twentysomething GOP delegate), still stun the Republican establishing with continued victories to secure the nomination and then position himself to appeal to disenchanted youth across D-R lines in the general election?