Economy will be pivotal to final 2012 youth vote turnout and margin

If they want to appeal to young voters, Republicans cannot marginalize minority communities. But with the economy being the central issue for young Americans, there is no evidence that their decision to hit the ballot box will hinge upon a candidate's embrace of same-sex marriage.

Two questions to grapple with in the coming month:

1) A new GOP super PAC has launched to target young swing-voters. Does Team Romney make a more forceful effort to court young voters - and does the presumptive GOP nominee soften the harder-line conservative positions he has inherited from the primary? 

2) We have seen in the last couple of months the Obama campaign's most active college homecoming since his 2008 primary campaign. Does the President continue to pursue young voters with renewed vigor, both newly registered teens and his '08 supporters (both loyal and disillusioned ones)? 

For our readers: Wesley and I both start new reporting projects in June and will be posting here with less frequency. Thank you for your ongoing interest in the millennial angle surrounding this election cycle.

As we have tried to explain here, younger constituencies are one of the most decisive demographics of 2012. More broadly, the state of youth political engagement, here and across the globe, is an enormously important subject.

In the upcoming U.S. contest, the size of President Obama's marginal advantage with 18-29 voters will likely determine the fate of his re-election bid against Governor Romney.

Wesley and I will continue to analyze the salient youth dimensions of this campaign. As veterans of new media campaign and youth vote coverage, we are both pleased to discuss the subject, so do feel free to get in touch.

Youth Vote 2012: A Breakdown

I stumbled across this online yesterday, and figured it was certainly worth sharing with those readers following this year's youth vote.
 

Republican 'War on Marriage' rhetoric is wrong strategy to court youth

President Obama made what is - hands down - the largest news thus far of the 2012 election cycle by declaring his support for gay marriage in an interview aired today on ABC News.

His comments, after Vice President Joe Biden made similar declarations last week, make Obama the first sitting president in U.S. history to publicly support same sex marriage.

No matter what side of the aisle you sit on, it's impossible to ignore the significance of this announcement.

Generations of lawmakers are still fighting to run from their vocal opposition of civil rights in the 1960s and 70s, but Obama has set a new standard for Democrats. While his words will not do anything to expand gay rights in the United States — he went on to add that he believes its a states rights issue — it is a crucial step toward moving one of the major parties to the "right side of history."

According to national polling by ABC News and the Washington Post, 52 percent of Americans support legalizing same-sex marriage while 43 percent oppose it. (Take a glance at this chart, which tracks public sentiment on gay marriage since 2004).

Assuming gay marriage eventually becomes accepted and legal nationwide, the Democrats will be able to claim they championed the LGBT cause (which couldn't be further from the truth, but mark my words - they'll do it come 2016).

Besides the a day of headlines, Obama's announcement can have long-term impact on his reelection campaign. The announcement itself, albeit forced by Biden's antics, will mobilize his base, while the GOP response holds the potential to doom their chances of unseating him come November.

Few issues have the potential to stir up the left en masse - a major announcement on a social issue such as same sex marriage is one of those things.

The announcement will help excite young voters (who, as we've reported before, are largely disinterested in this election), a crucial demographic for the Obama campaign.

That same ABC/WaPo poll found that 65 percent of young voters support the legalization of gay marriage — the largest level of support among any demographic.

Meanwhile, the demographic Obama risks alienating by his vocal support for gay marriage is minority voters — specifically black and hispanic voters — who trend socially conservative on social issues. George W. Bush made wooing the black church largely by uniting in opposition to gay marriage, a major 2004 wedge issue, a major component in his re-election campaign.

However, the prospect of black voters abandoning Obama is bleak. His polling among minority communities remains sky high while a number of black political leaders — from the Rev. Al Sharpton to former New York Governor David Paterson — have expressed support for same sex marriage without major political backlash from the black community.

Elections are won and lost in the middle of the political spectrum. While rallying the base is key, Mitt Romney has no chance of defeating the incumbent president without making an appeal to the center of the electorate.

But 2012 is no 2004 and Romney is no George W. Bush.

In '04 Bush successfully appealed to the conservative core of the nation by drumming up paranoia about gay marriage and abortion. Eight years later, the impending moral decline of the country (as preached by the right in the early 2000s) has yet to be realized.

Meanwhile, the bulk of the country has seen much of the vocal opposition to same sex marriage devolve into the equivelent of hate speech. To win the next generation of voters, the GOP must distance itself from gay-bashing and inflated paranoia about gay Americans.

Headlines like the one below (which Fox News has since scrapped from their site), won't help the GOP make that case.

In a column for Newsweek published in 2010, Theodore Olson, a top advisor to GOP presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, outlined why conservatives should embrace same sex marriage. Meanwhile, as the ellectorate becomes increasingly less tied to generational religious convictions, it is only a matter of time before

The days of the "Moral Majority" may be over if millennials become an increasingly active segment of ballot-casters (in which case wedge issues such as abortion, gay marriage and prayer in schools will become increasingly irrelevant in the national political discourse).

Alexander: Is it time the GOP embraced same-sex marriage? With nearly 3 in 10 GOP voters in support of same sex marriage, how long will it be before we see a Republican presidential candidate who supports gay rights? 

An 18-29 win for Romney is eroding President Obama's 2/3 margin of victory

First, we ought to consider the nature of a youth vote victory for Governor Romney this cycle. Even a slight decline in President Obama's 2008-level margin could be considered a win.

We have reported here ‪ad nauseam that capturing at least 2/3 of the 18-29 demographic is essential to Obama's bid for re-eletion.

As Alexandra Jaffe wrote recently in National Journal, Obama is concertedly pushing for young voters "in hopes of [an] Election Day payoff."

"The White House pledged...to help lower-income youth find summer jobs in a move likely to appeal to younger voters crucial to President Barack Obama's re-election campaign," reports Reuters of the White House's new summer jobs initiative.

In his efforts to rekindle enthusiasm among young people, President Obama has targeted U.S. university hubs in battleground states like Ohio and Virginia. The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire recently chronicled:

There’s a reason Mr. Obama seems particularly interested in rediscovering his mojo with the college set. The votes in those towns may be critical to him in a what’s shaping up to be a close campaign – much more important than they were four years ago. As he hops from quad to quad, however, he may find repeating his 2008 campus magic to be tougher. 

So what is Governor Romney to do? In WSJ columnist Daniel Henninger's recent "Memo to the Youth," he argues that the current administration's policies - particularly its preservation of current entitlements - prevent future economic or job growth (for young people and the country broadly).

The column doesn't address Romney as a potentially positive alternative for young voters.

In a rough economy, it may not be enough to bash Obama's economic policies as a failed, when the presumptive Republican nominee is not proposing specific policies that would enhance social mobility of millennials. Romney also has to stray away from the kind of messages and/or gaffes that turn off struggling young Americans.

With young voters, disinterest is Obama's biggest hurdle

Conservative bloggers and GOP operatives couldn't be more excited by the prospect of President Obama slipping with young voters. Unfortunately for them, I'm still not exactly buying it.

You see, Obama has, in fact, taken the exact advice we game him in the days following the State of the Union. At SCOOP2012, we opined that one potential strategy for monopolizing the youth vote would be to focus heavily on college affordability.

The President has done just that. He's made student loan debt the primary talking point for his many campus visits, and is scheduled to speak on it almost exclusively when he visits Ohio State University this Thursday.

This strategy has come under fire, but we've got to give Obama credit: he is going after young voters - hard.

But some are citing recent polling to suggest that Obama is losing his grip on the youth vote.

As Alexander pointed out in Friday's post, recent Gallup polls have shown Obama's advantage with young voters is not nearly as high as the final vote totals in his 2008 contest against John McCain.

I'd argue that the most damning polls are those showing that young voters simply don't care about this year's election. In fact, the most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that just 45 percent of young voters polled are taking a big interest in the election. That's down from 63 percent in 2008.

Young voters, outraged by the war in Iraq and in an act of rebellion against one of most unpopular U.S. presidents in modern history, eagerly drank the "Yes, We Can" kool-aid in 2008. Four years later, they still like Obama enough to keep the reverse — a huge youth push behind GOP nominee Mitt Romney — from happening. But do they love him enough to propel him to victory or has the rockstar president performed his las number?

Chicago Tribune columnist Clarence Page writes:

He needs to rekindle the Yes-We-Can enthusiasm among young voters that propelled him to the Oval Office in 2008. He has a 17-percentage point advantage over his presumptive Republican rival Mitt Romney among voters 18 to 29, according to a nationwide poll by Harvard University's Institute of Politics. But almost a third in that age group is undecided. Obama has an advantage with under-30 voters that he needs to energize to offset his deficits with older voters, particularly white, blue-collar males.

There's certainly no magic bullet for winning over undecided young voters, but at the end of the day, I'm not sure Obama even needs one. He remains a popular, relatively uncontroversial president while Romney remains a safe, yet unexciting alternative.

In a battle of two safe choices — in the absence of a major gaffe — the incumbent usual keeps his or her job.

Alexander, it's pretty clear to me that Obama is doing a much more proactive job of reaching out to young voters. What can Romney do to catch up?

New Gallup poll: Young people may be less excited turn out for Obama in 2012

ABC News reports on another less optimistic poll for the Obama campaign:

President Obama may still have the support of the youth population, but will they turn out to vote for him? A new poll indicates that is uncertain. A Gallup poll conducted earlier this week surveyed voter registration and likelihood to vote, broken down by age groups. Among the 18-29 set, 60 percent indicated that they are registered to vote. Obama enjoys a wide lead over Romney in this age group: 64 percent support Obama while only 29 percent support Romney. However, when asked if they definitely will vote in the general election, only 56 percent replied yes.

Nonetheless, as the Washington Post explained this week, youth turnout was not the decisive asset for the 2008 Obama team's electoral math (though the size of the millennial vote did top that of recent presidential contests).

Rather, it was the proportion of young voters who favored then then Democratic candidate Obama over Republican McCain (a 2/3 Obama vote, according to exit polls). This margin was particularly relevant in 08's swing-states, and remains ever so crucial this year.

Over at CNN, I broke down President Obama's campus tour and message to young Americans. Happy weekend reading! Wesley, what is your reaction to the flurry of recent surveys indicating young people's waning - or at least less fiery - support for the President?

Headlines of economic gloom that cry for young people's political engagement - and for President Obama to reach deeper to connect with millennials

Associated Press: Half of new graduates are jobless or underemployed.

The U.S. college class of 2012 is in for a rude welcome to the world of work.Young adults with bachelor's degrees are increasingly scraping by in lower-wage jobs — waiter or waitress, bartender, retail clerk or receptionist, for example — and that's confounding their hopes a degree would pay off despite higher tuition and mounting student loans.

CNBC: Gen Y May Face Least Secure Retirement

Enter Generation Y. Roughly between 18 and 34 years old, this generation's table is wobbling on its last two legs: a job and a 401(k), which are co-dependent. Thus instead of protection, Gen Yers have inherited a great deal of pressure. More than ever, they know they better be employable, and they better be skilled 401(k) investors. The trouble is, it is quite difficult to do this when faced with high unemployment, and ever-higher student loan debt. 

According to the Congressional Budget Office's annual report on Social Security solvency, in 2023 trust fund assets will start to diminish until they become exhausted in 2036 — well before Gen Yers even contemplate retiring. 

The article ends with the notion that - if young Americans want to flourish in the Golden Years of retirement - they "better be a [Warren] Buffett." This is a nightmarish glimpse into the extinction of the 99% for most Americans. What every happened to the middle-class?

Amid economic hardship for millennials, President Obama is rocking the campus vote with visionary leadership on...the single loan issue?

Christian Science Monitor: Student loans: Obama's bid to rekindle 'Yes We Can' among youths.

Young voters aren't as enthusiastic as they were four years ago, meaning turnout could decline. So Obama is touring universities in North Carolina, Colorado, and Iowa to talk about student loans.

The expiration of a law that cuts interest rates for students is set to expire...and Obama is listening to young people's need for those rates to remain at 3.4 percent (and not jump back to just under 7).

But to galvanize the youth vote anew in 2012, when their economic livelihood is at stake, he'll have to reach deeper than loans that to connect with millenials. If he doesn't, he'll be missing the boat - beyond just this cycle's youth vote.

For Obama campaign, chilling survey imperils President's youth vote in 2012

The closing gap between President Obama and Governor Romney among young voters - from a 2/3 majority over McCain on Election Day 2008 to a one-digit lead against this year's prospective GOP nominee in recent polls - is potentially devastating news for the White House.

A new survey reveals young Americans are considerably less enthusiastic about Obama's re-election than they were about his candidacy four years ago. Scholar Russell Walter Mead observes as much in American Interest:

One of the biggest political stories of 2008 was the rise of the Millennials as an electoral force. As “Obamamania” swept the nation, college students across the country abandoned their usual political apathy and volunteered for the Obama campaign in droves, canvassing, phone banking and harnessing the power of social media. This youth enthusiasm paid dividends for the Obama campaign, and was reflected in the vote totals: Obama beat McCain among 18-24 year-olds by a whopping 34 percent, winning 66 percent of the vote.

In order to win re-election, the President will have to preserve a sizable advantage over young voters. In what is likely to be a neck-and-neck electoral finish, a 2/3 surplus of young voters may be a prerequisite for Democratic victory.
 
And, apparently, Obama is aware: He is focusing on the youth vote next week, as USA Today reports. "His next stops: The University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, the University of Colorado at Boulder, and the University of Iowa in Iowa City. The issue: student loans."

A White House announcement to college reporters reporters reads: "More than 7.4 million students with federal student loans will see their interest rates double on July 1 unless Congress steps in to keep them low,"

Young people will welcome President Obama tackling the number issue directly affecting 18-25 year-olds. But three and a half years later - after being sold on Obama as a fixer-in-chief - student debt has continued to proliferate.

And their economic reality is no less grueling. Many young people say they want to hear specific proposals to improve college affordability and, most central in the long term, millennial social mobility. (In GOOD Magazine, I recently grappled with efforts President Obama and Governor Romney might consider.)

News of President Obama's campus visits was an incredibly quick turnaround. While the survey may be an ominous warning for Democrats, Obama seems to be taking immediate notice, which suggests he knows how central he deems the youth vote in his re-election odds.

So, Wesley, as Molly Ball asks in the Atlantic: How severe is Obama's trouble with young voters at this point?  

For better youth vote prospects, time for the real Mitt Romney to stand up

Alexander,

In your most recent post you make a point worth repeating - if pending GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney is going to begin his transformation into "moderate Mitt," the sooner the better.

Now, since deciding to name this post after the popular rap song by Eminem, I've got to embed what has become the best parody of the election season thus far.

As funny as it may be, the question of who is the real Mitt Romney has haunted the GOP frontrunner for the bulk of the campaign. It's safe to say that, had voters felt more comfortable with Romney then the likes of Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich never would have soared (however briefly) to the top of the polls.

Fortunately, I'm pretty positive it won't be long before Romney has fully retooled his campaign to be more about the general election and will put his fellow GOP hopefuls in the review mirror once and for all.

Once he's done that, we'll see the real Romney - a moderate who used states' powers under the constitution to pass healthcare and create jobs. The real Romney - especially if he's partnered with a reasonable running mate such as Ohio Sen. Rob Portman - has a legitimate chance to win the middle of the spectrum and unseat President Obama.

Alexander, what stances must Romney take now not only to win over young voters, but also to complete his transformation into "Moderate Mitt"?

For Romney's independent appeal, swerve to the center must precede VP

Millennials are independent-minded. Even so, it's true: Many of them voted, in fact an over-2/3-majority, for President Obama over Senator McCain.

Wesley, you raise several important profiles of prospective GOP VPs.

But Governor Romney has so tilted his positions from their pre-2012 primary campaign orientation that he will have to fight hard, beginning now, to persuade independent voters to pull the lever for him. That includes young voters because they share the central frustration of most undecideds come Election Day: Dissatisfaction with the enduring two-party money war and rhetorical vitriol.

Moreover, Romney will have gradually lurch to more moderate stances now - rather than wait for a unifying VP selection as late as August - in order to win over these overlapping demographics with a distaste for partisanship.

This said, in the coming posts, I will think more about candidates who would offer Romney (and voters) the best balance of non-overtly partisan gravitas and center-right policies. A leading frontrunner in the GOP Veepstakes, Senator Rob Portman is not an angry partisan. He could come off as quite sensible - perhaps more so than Romney - to the vast majority of voters.

But I do think that a fresh and yet experienced face, a minority Republican like Condi Rice, could also provide fuel for the GOP's efforts to bring young and centrist voters into their camp.

Young voters' VP wish list

Alexander,

The question you posed earlier this week is the one we'll probably be hearing most often as the rest of this campaign plays out.

While there are dozens of potential GOP vice presidential candidates, there are only a handful who could successfully mobilize (or attempt to) young voters.

Marco Rubio - This Florida senator is at the top of anyone's VP list. He's got obvious chemistry with presumptive nominee Mitt Romney, and his minority status will certainly help the GOP ticket in a 2012 race that will largely revolve around each ticket's ability to mobilize the minority (especially Hispanic) vote.

Ron Paul - The longtime Texas congressman is on few people's VP list, but I'd caution the Romney camp against given this current presidential hopeful a serious consideration. No potential GOP vice presidential candidate has as much potential to mobilize the youth vote as much as Ron Paul. He's got a devoted following, national name recognition and, the active opposition he faces with mainstream GOPers will most likely not be mobilized with Paul at the bottom of the ticket. Also, Reuters published an interesting poll earlier this month that showed Paul would pull 17% of the national vote were he to run third party. If you're Mitt Romney, you need to do everything in your power to keep that from happening.

Chris Christie - The NJ governor is a GOP darling whom many pundits believe would have won the Republican contest had he entered the race. That said, I'd be extremely cautious to putting him on the ticket were I the Republican candidate. Christie is hated by most moderates and all liberals in his home state, and could not guarantee the GOP ticket a win in the Garden State. I personally like Christie, but don't see the upside to including him on the GOP ticket.

Those are a my thoughts on some of the potential GOP VP candidates. What do you think, Alexander?

Romney's VP pick could court youth

Governor Romney is the presumptive Republican nominee. In due course, he will likely rack up enough delegates to effectively run a national election campaign.

But as we have reported here, millennials take issue with many elements of the platform that he has adopted as a self-proclaimed genuine conservative candidate seeking the GOP nomination.

If President Obama's health care legislation is ruled unconstitutional, including the provisions providing coverage for young adults under their parents' plans and for patients with pre-existing medical conditions, Romney will likely experience a visible backlash among youth who have merely not followed his candidacy to date.

In addition to the list of moves that Wesley has proposed last month, Romney's VP pick, too, could potentially position him more strongly with the younger 18-29 demographic. One former Obama aide said Condoleezza Rice, the former Secretary of State, could bring new voters into the Romney camp.

Wesley, who are some other potential Romney VPs that could have appeal to the youth vote?

Romney needs a compelling etch-a-sketch to win the youth vote

Wesley, I think your prescription for Romney's ill-fated campaign for independent-minded young voters is exactly what the doctor ordered. As I said Sunday on FOX NEWS, President Obama still has a strong advantage with young voters.



He can't wait for an outright delegate win before he remakes his image. The stunning thing may be that he is displaying no desire to retune. To be himself.

We all know he won't win as the grits-eating social conservative who wants to ban Planned Parenthood.

It's smart for Romney to campaign on his economic credentials, but he has to clearly explain how his "managerial skills" will foster a friendlier economy to millennials. Right now, his position is zero intervention - no active government.

So if you transcend talking points and the single Republican-stamped cure of tax cuts and deregulation, how are you going to help young people's economic woes, their trillion-dollar loan (in sum), and their joblessness and homelessness on American streets?

And what's your short and long-term vision of how to correct this problems plaguing youth? Those are questions for the former governor.

The GOP has long accused Democratic candidates of being tax-and-spenders. Wesley, what does that make Romney if he simply stakes his campaign on no taxation or regulation?

Winning the GOP nomination could cost Romney the youth vote, oval office

One can only hope that Mitt Romney's comments about young support for incumbent President Barack Obama will mean a re-tooling of his campaign to focus on millennial issues.

But don't hold you breath.

To his credit, Romney is winning big right now — not only in the delegate count but also in terms of the number of young voters punching his name on the ballot.

According to New York Times exit polls, Romney won nearly every demographic in Illinois, and carried 41% of the youth vote.

But the enthusiasm lack among GOP voters has been well documented, especially among millennials. In order to mobilize the base, Romney will have to do a handful of things.

1. Stop moving to the right.

While other GOP candidates such as Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have hammered Romney for being a Massachusetts moderate, Romney must remember that his national electability comes from his ability to appeal to independent voters who may be disenfranchised by the unfilled promises of Obama's 2008 campaign.

The further right he moves, the more he turns those voters off.

2. Refocus the message on young voters.

Gas prices, student loan debt, social justice issues (such as the Trayvon Martin case currently engulfing the attention of much of the country) — all things that matter to young voters, and all things we've yet to hear Romney discuss. If Romney wants to mobilize the GOP youth base, he'll have to aggressively court them. Right now, he hasn't even asked them out on the first date.

3. Bring Paulites into the fold.

Lost in the recent election coverage has been any mention of the fourth GOP candidate: Ron Paul. Now, there's a legitimate reason for that, since he's polling less than 10 percent nationally and has yet to win a single state (even in the caucus states his campaign bragged it could win).

But with that said, no candidate has had a more excited base of support or more visible and vocal young backers than Dr. Paul. Without mobilizing the libertarian arm of the party, Romney has absolutely no chance — pending another nationwide financial crisis — to defeat Obama in November.

Alexander, got anything you'd add to the list?

On eve of Ill. primary, Romney 'doesn't see how anyone who is a young person could vote for a Democrat'

Tomorrow is a make-or-break contest for Governor Romney, but not in the conventional sense.

If he wins Illinois, and if he wins big, it will catapult him to near nominee status. It will provide the boost of momentum he seeks to deliver a penultimate, if final, blow to Senator Santorum's delegate odds.

As for the youth voter this spring: The increasing gas prices will never rival soaring tuition costs as the chief concern of 18-25 year old voters. However, older millennials, mid-to-late twentysomethings who don't shoulder college debt, may view the dollar tag at the pump their #1 issue. Either way you frame it, jobless or tangled in debt, "it's the economy, stupid," for Gen Y.

Mitt Romney, perhaps inadvertently, created headlines yesterday when he said he "doesn't see how anyone who is a young person could vote for a Democrat." It was Romney's only verbal courtship of young voters targeted at general election, and it hardly had the muster of substantiation.

However, his view is not totally inconsistent with young people's disappointment with President Obama for not aggressively enough fighting on their behalf...and on their issues. In the vast majority of youth polls, college voters are unhappy with Obama's performance on at least one issue (i.e.: the environment or gay rights).

Given deepening red ink and fiscal woes, some youth remain generally disenchanted with President Obama, especially on college costs. A modest Pell Grant expansion has not done wonders for the first-time voter demographic's economic footing.  

However, Romney, to date, has done little, if anything, to persuade the young voter why they would vote for a Republican instead. Romney and his current brand of Republicanism has only distanced young people from potentially voting for a Republican this fall.

The party's cycle has been a vicious one, not only for the exhausted and sometimes self-destructing candidates, but for the young voter who is completely turned off, whether it's talk of banning Planned Parenthood or dismissive attitudes toward college aspirations.

At the end of the day, for most young voters, the President is not that bad after all. He brought troops home from Iraq, extended health insurance coverage to more young Americans, invested in record education, innovation and infrastructure projects via stimulus and added two pro-choice vigorous intellectual women to the Supreme Court. Those are still promises kept, if you ask most college students or higher-educated 18-29 millennials, even if they don't cure the economic ills plaguing many of them.  

So, Wesley, can you see how anyone who is a young person could vote for a Republican?

Anticipating Illinois vote, GOP youth base deals continued blows to Romney

Courtesy of FOX NEWS and CNN, respectively: youth exiting polling from Alabama and Mississippi demonstrating Santorum's sweep of the 18-29 demographic. As CIRCLE reports, "Santorum Surpasses Paul in Cumulative Youth Vote Count after Alabama and Mississippi Primaries."

Apologies for my recent absent from SCOOP2012. I'm recovering from surgery and hope to be more or less recuperated soon.

As for Wesley's question about millennials and gas prices, I will answer on Monday.

Will pain at the pump drive young voters to GOP candidates?

While writing for The Wall Street Journal last summer, I conducted what remains one of the most entertaining interviews I've ever had.

I was covering monthly rent rates for New York City, and figured why not give a ring to the most outspoken opponent of high rent — the one and only Jimmy McMillian.

Now, I haven't reached out to Mr. McMillian for this post, but I'm pretty sure he'd agree that — like rent — "gas prices are too damn high."

But while both sides of the aisle agree that lower prices will be nice, the question remains just who is to blame for the high gas prices, and whether frustration over them will cause backlash from the American people toward the incumbent president when they hit the polls this November.

GOP candidates, specifically Newt Gingrich, seem to think so.

The former Speaker of the House has launched his #250gas campaign, centered around the promise that "Newt gas" would cost just $2.50.

I've yet to see evidence that the campaign has been particularly effective with young voters, even as it has reached the ears of most Americans. A Washington Post poll released earlier this week found that nearly two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the way Obama has handled gas prices in the U.S.

I'd be eager to see a poll directly asking young people if they fault Obama for the high gas prices, but in the meantime, one thing is clear — young voters do care about energy dependence.

According to a 2011 poll conducted by Generation Opportunity:

61 percent of young adults rated energy dependency among the top three national security issues facing the United States, along with national debt and indebtedness to foreign powers. In the same poll, 70 percent of young adults indicated they would increase the production of domestic energy sources like oil, natural gas, and coal. Also, due to the poor economy, 77 percent of young Americans indicated they either have or will delay major life decisions as a result of the poor economy including decisions to start a family, have children, buy a home, and save for retirement.

Young voters are certainly paying attention to the continually rising cost of gas, but what remains unclear is whether pegging a long-term presidential contest on a constantly changing economic variable is a wise political move.

Generation Opportunity's poll also found that young voters rank Energy Dependence as the second most important political issue (trailing the national debt).

So, Alexander, how will the dialogue over rising and unstable gas prices play out at the ballot box in November? Will it hurt President Obama and just how important is the price of gas to young voters?

Will South give Romney the birthday present he's been asking for?

Tomorrow we'll get the results of two more GOP contests — Mississippi and Alabama — where frontrunner and presumptive nominee Mitt Romney is hoping to further add to his argument that his competitors should drop out of the race and unite behind his campaign.

Timing would be great for Romney. He's coming off a close win in Ohio and is celebrating his birthday (can you believe this guy is 65?).

Romney has had his campaign surrogates touting the same message. Real estate mogul, reality televison personality and presidential campaign flirt Donald Trump had this to say, yesterday:

Trump told Fox News (Via Politico):

“It’s not game over [yet] because nobody gets out. I mean, Rick Santorum, who lost by 18 or 19 points running for the Senate in Pennsylvania, just keeps going and going,” Trump said on “Fox & Friends.” “What does he have to lose by staying in? So he just doesn’t get out

“He’s not going to win and it’s not going to happen. In my opinion, it’s not going to happen and the one that’s winning is Obama.

At a certain point, you have to get behind a person and you have to start going after Obama and not each other. And what the Republicans are doing is disgraceful."

Now, I'm rarely, if ever, inclined to agree with Trump on matters of politics but, if Gingrich or Santorum can't pull together a win tomorrow then I'll side with the Romney camp.

In the meantime, both parties must focus on mobilizing the electorate. After what has been 7 years of unpopular presidencies (the last half of the Bush administration and much of the Obama administration thus far) many young people are little more than turned off by politics.

In fact, a study released by test-prep provided Kaplan last week included some troubling statistics.

According to the study:

The shine off the Capitol dome may be losing its luster for pre-law students, a traditional bullpen for future politicians. In a Kaplan Test Prep survey of 758 pre-law students conducted between December 2011 and February 2012, 38% said they would consider running for political office – a marked decline from the 54% who reported they were thinking about becoming candidates in 2009. Within that 38% lies a glaring gender gap: 51% of male pre-law students would consider running, but only 29% of female pre-law students would consider it.

If the decline in political aspirations among pre-law students continues, it may fuel an existing and related trend: the decline in the number of lawyers serving in Congress.

Here is a key question for us: If our nation's aspiring lawmakers are, in fact, not aspiring lawmakers, should we be confident about young turnout in 2012? What is turning young people off from the political process?

Youth take-aways from Tuesday's vote

Courtesy of CIRCLE's tracking of 18-29 voters in the Super Tuesday states, we can glean two important realities for the youth vote for the GOP and into the general election.

1) Young people expanded their political support network - not exclusively flocking to Paul.

Combining the five Super Tuesday states in which exit polls were conducted with adequate youth samples, CIRCLE estimates that 88,000 total youth voted for Rep. Ron Paul, with about 88,000 who voted for former Sen. Rick Santorum, about 86,000 for former Gov. Mitt Romney, and about 43,000 for former Speaker Newt Gingrich.

2) President Obama continues to rivals the GOP in terms of the excitement he generated in 2008. As a candidate, Obama galvanized more than twice as many youth as the top three 2012 GOP candidates combined have.


This is why this year's youth vote is so crucial: Obama will exploit the Republican enthusiasm gap if he can reconnect with two-thirds of the 18-29 demographic.


Wesley, what are your thoughts?

Honestly, Tuesday's primaries won't be super important in 2012

I've long been a fan of Ron Paul's campaign strategy of embracing the delegate process and ignoring the beauty contest mentality of most presidential campaigns — even though it's left most mainstream pundits to declare his presidential efforts dead in the water.

We haven't been so hasty here at Scoop 2012. We've written and reported extensively on Paul's chances, the seeming success of his delegate strategy and the looming threat that he ditches the GOP in favor of a third party run.

I'm still convinced that a third party bid by Paul could be the most legitimate threat to the two-party system we've seen in hundreds of years (and I'm not complaining).

But lets not get too carried away with Paul right now — because I don't project him doing well in tomorrow's Super Tuesday primaries. He'll have solid support in many of the states — maybe even hitting 15 percent in states like Ohio and Massachusetts.

However, the three candidates with the most on the line tomorrow are clearly Romney, Santorum and Gingrich.

Absent from much of the national political dialogue since his free fall in the polls following his win in South Carolina. But he's sure to do well in his home state of Georgia — so if he can manufacture a handful of other strong performances he might gain national momentum.

Meanwhile, Santorum and Romney will be going head to head through the bulk of the Super Tuesday states.

The Washington Post did a great video break down of what is at stake tomorrow and how things might play out.

At the end of the day, as much as I love the hype and excitement that always surrounds Super Tuesday, this year's GOP primary is reminiscent of the Democratic primary in 2008 — a long, drawn out delegate battle.

Alexander: I trust you'll wait until after last night's results to let us know how young voters showed up and who they supported at the polls.

YOUTH SUPPORT: Why Ron Paul placed second in WA, and may creep up on Romney's delegate count lead

In this Tampa Bay Times article, I explain why young people continue to embrace Paul.

...Paul is far less likely to win, his supporters admit, than Romney. Why, then, do young people still make him their preference this primary campaign? The answer is in every public opinion poll that describes young people's disgust with the political process. A libertarian rebel in GOP clothes and a frequent thorn in the side of Republican colleagues, Paul represents a path to freedom from a destructive two-party political system. 

As the antiparty party candidate, Paul's central appeal, like that of Ralph Nader and Ross Perot before him, is that he is an deviation from today's D.C. is neither a success story nor a work-in-progress: The two-party system and its unrelenting entrenched moneyed interests are denying the next generation a decent chance of enduring economic equity for all Americans. 

Surely, young people consider Paul, like the rest in the GOP field, a flawed candidate. Some of his social and foreign policy positions are not in sync with the Millennial sensibility. But Paul's constant emphasis on the economic imperative at home — before investments in international commitments abroad — resonates plenty with the average college student carrying the impossible weight of college loans or with the recent graduate who can't find work in the United States.

The Washington Post also urges the GOP: "Ignore Ron Paul at your own peril."

Stay at SCOOP2012, for youth-centric analysis of the Washington caucus and young people's imprint on the Super Tuesday contests.


Wesley, how do you read the Evergreen State's impact?

For Americans Elect third party bid to be reality, time is of the essence

Wesley, I think you know my answer to your question since I've answered it quite definitively in past posts! Yes, yes, yes: Young people crave a third party.

I just wrote an article on the subject that will appear in this Sunday's Perspective section of the Tampa Bay Times, to which I regularly contribute.

Most young people continue to vote Paul not because they agree with his specific Libertarian ideology or his social positions (many of which are out of sync with mainstream millennial thought), but because he represents a path to a third party. His focus on economics here at home, a wish to avert American attention from foreign debt and political entanglements, also resonate....since the belief among most Americans is that Democrats and Republicans care about those matters than YOU, THE CITIZEN.

It is more complicated than this, of course, and I will link to my piece here over the weekend.

Americans Elect needs to wage a formidable national media campaign. Right now, cable spots promoting their agenda are woefully inadequate. They need full-page newspaper ads nationwide, celebrity spokespeople and endorsements from bipartisan-spirited pols.



Most importantly, they need to signal that the virtually nominated ticket will not be two marginal candidates but legitimate statesmen and that they will be represented on the ballots of all fifty states. Don't get me wrong: As this Sunshine State news article reports, serious political figures have undertaken this effort.

Former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman is affiliated with the group. David Walker, who served under three presidents and was chief auditor and in charge of the U.S. Government Accountability Office, is also affiliated with Americans Elect and is receiving some buzz as a possible candidate for their nomination. 

But Presidents Elect will not nominate its ticket until June, and in the money and momentum war, that may be too late to overcome the Democratic and Republican cash advantage. However, if Romney fails to bring imminent order to GOP mayhem, the group may be have a rare opportunity to infiltrate itself into the nation's political marketplace of ideas...and cold cash.

Besides the continued discontent with toxic partisanship and the desire for a third way, both of which are a given, there are five conditions under which Americans Elect could gain enough traction to be a factor this cycle:

- Their PR gains nationwide buzz, and soon
- Romney remains unable to seal the deal for GOP nod (at least for another month)
- Americans Elect ticket gets on all fifty state ballots
- They nominate a credible ticket
- The candidates chosen opt to participate

John Hudson of the Atlantic contends Olympia Snowe's departure from the Senate could possibly propel her to the post-partisan limelight, noting contenders with real governing-chops: Jon Huntsman, Michael Bloomberg, Evan Bayh, and Buddy Roemer. Those, especially the first three, are serious and smart contenders.



(Colbert and Stewart are smart but would likely be margin in their exclusive millennial appeal. But if Ronald Reagan can pull it off, this suaver entertainment duo could probably, too.)

Given the two-party entrenchment, it's unrealistic that anyone of these candidates, even Bloomberg with his personal net-worth, will launch a third party. It's just that impractical in their eyes. 

Beyond drafting two third party candidates, what Americans Elect is trying to do is establish the infrastructure to support such a quest, one a Bloomberg or Huntsman may dream of. Young people especially acknowledge Americans Elect as a noble pursuit...even if it is propped up by hedge fund money, as anti-Wall Street critics lament.

But I don't get their cynicism. This 1% band is supporting a virtual primary because they want to awaken direct as democracy in America. And, yes, some wealthy Americans, too, want real change (beyond D-to-R-and-back) in the nation's increasingly self-destructive politics.

Wesley, it is still unlikely, to the chagrin of young voters and most Americans, that this will be the "year of the third party."

But Americans Elect is working to protect the American political system, so candidates free of major party control, like Ross Perot, will one again come into view for voters...on the debate stage and in the ballot box. How hard are they working?

We'll know if the days to come.

Now, Wesley, what is the kerfuffle over this Washington caucus...is it as decisive for the Paul and Santorum camps as most pundits are contending?