Still searching for 18-29 electoral data from Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri

Wesley, you are correct, as far as my research goes: There is no data-driven evidence that Santorum won a majority, or even a plurality, of middle-class youth in Colorado, Minnesota or Missouri. As Abby Kiesa of Tufts University's CIRCLE told me:

"To our knowledge, there were no entrance/exit polls in this year's Republican primary/caucuses in CO, MN and MO. As a result, we do not have the youth share of voters, how youth voted and were not able to calculate youth voter turnout. We do, of course, have other data from those states, from midterm and Presidential elections."

She elaborated that such numbers don't exist, which you also confirmed to me, Wesley.

The absence of polling is neither evidence for nor against Santorum's populist edge with young people. If you are confident in the Paul trend, because he's won the youth vote in every contest to date, you will reasonably infer that he won big among within the 18-29 demographic.

I, too, suspect that Paul won or nearly won young people in all three states. But I am more cautious in such an estimate because of Santorum's victories and because of the nature of young Republican voters in these states that are more historically populist than Libertarian.

I should not have suggested, if I did, that ex-Paul supporters were flocking to Santorum - although that may well be a phenomenon we report on in the next week or two. Instead, I was suggesting that youth in these three heartland states may reflect the mindset of conservative South Carolinian youth more than New Hampshire's young people. (Also, we must note, there was an open primary in that state.)

Consequently, based on how Gingrich had to perform with S.C. youth in order to win (trailing Paul by fewer than 5 points), I would be surprised if Santorum did not take a close second-place among 18-29 year-old voters in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.

Sadly, to date, no reporting can corroborate this. But on Monday I will check in with the electoral authorities in those respective states as well as the campaigns. In the mean time, what are you looking for in today's Maine contest, particularly relative to that state's pro-Paul youthful band? 

Focus on horserace only plays to advantage of Obama

As I've outlined, those results don't exist.

Which actually raises an interesting point — our over-reliance on horse race polls to quantify our political whims. Many states, especially the smaller, Midwestern and Western ones, aren't given the same attention by pollsters. In fact, no one is taking polls of Maine, which currently has its caucus underway.

Frankly, I don't know that it's a bad thing. With some many polls, pollsters and statistics out there it's easy for pundits to use a Google search to find "statistics" to back up pretty much any political assertion.

Exit polls can be equally unreliable.

So, if complete voter break downs from this week's contests is ever made available, I'm sure we'll be able to skew the numbers to evidence a Santorum surge among young people.

I'm not saying Santorum has no shot at the nomination. He's been somewhat of a hit at CPAC this week (although his polarizing comments about global warming and healthcare won't win him young support) and discontent with Romney among the GOP rank-and-file has never been stronger.

But as the GOP contenders to fail to excite young voters, and we and other pundits, continue make excuses for them and fabricate momentum swings, President Obama is solidifying his monopoly on the young vote.

He's continued to be the only person talking about student loan debt, and he's continuing to take moderate, non-partisan positions on controversial issues to strengthen his post-partisan campaign rhetoric.

In his FiveThirtyEight blog today, New York Times reporter Nate Silver lays out why Santorum may still have a shot at the nomination - relying largely on speculation.

But for now, we've got to traffic in the arena of facts and history — neither of which suggests Santorum has gained any young momentum, especially among Paul supporters.

I haven't heard, or seen on social media, a SINGLE young Ron Paul supporter declare that he or she is switching candidate alliances.

How about you, Alexander? Late Tuesday night you considered his victories a shakeup and speculated that his convincing wins in the heartland of Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri meant Ron Paul supporters could jump for the Santorum bandwagon. What evidence, if any, backs that up?

In American heartland, what's the electoral beef among young people?

Wesley, you assert that Santorum is not yet winning the youth vote within the GOP rank.

Is there data from this week's votes in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri to confirm that? Moreover, did Ron Paul handily sweep millennials in each contest?

This compelling RealClearPolitics story, "Little Enthusiasm for Romney at CPAC," all but proves, in my mind, young Republicans' discontent with Romney as their likely nominee.  That doesn't necessarily translate into young people ditching Paul for Santorum. But what about these Midwestern states, Wesley: Did young voters turn out? What share of the vote did they represent? And for whom did they pull their respective levers?

We know that Nevada was a lost cause for young people. According to CIRCLE, only 1% of 18-29 year-olds turned out. Were this week's results different?

So far, Santorum trio of victories is no sign of young support

If it hasn't set in yet — almost 48 hours after the Santorum victories — that any evidence of a Rick Santorum surge was fabricated, let me explain it.

The candidate, who managed somewhat impressive wins in Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota, has yet to reap any real benefit from his victories earlier this week. While his name has been in the headlines a little more frequency, the attention will be long gone by the time the next set of voters hit the polls.

Santorum boasted that his campaign had brought in more than $250,000 in fundraising in the day following his wins, but, when put in context, that's a pretty pathetic yield for someone who just won three primaries.

Ron Paul gets more money from supporters on his birthday — literally.

While it's impossible to really tell if young voters played a large role in Santorum's victories (no exit polls from these three, relative small, states have been published) it's safe to assume they didn't.

The reason: overall voter turnout was down and in previous contests the Ron Paul has won the young voter every time fewer voters showed up at the polls than in 2008.

While they may see him as the flavor-of-the-week Mitt Romney alternative, Rick Santorum does not excite the GOP base — whose depressed turnout is a sad sign for the Republican chances of dethroning President Obama next year.

Take a glance at this graphic from today's Wall Street Journal:

Will this week's CPAC convention help the GOP (finally) rally it's base? Which of the scheduled speakers do you think has the most potentially to awaken the thus-far dormant young Republican voters, Alexander? 

Now can Santorum dethrone Paul as young people's candidate?

Well, you've got your answer, Wesley. Romney has had every opportunity, in hard cash and ad buys, to seal the deal with Republican voters...and he remains incapable of doing so.

Rick Santorum, the Keystone State's once obscure U.S. Senator, swept tonight's vote in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. A dramatic trifecta that thrusts Republicans back in the zigzagging roller-coaster that has been their nominating process this year.

Middle-class conservative voters, including the party's young minds, are coalescing around Santorum. In the wake of recent polls showing him neck-and-neck with Obama in a November general election contest, Republicans could well nominate Santorum as the electable alternative to Romney. 

Your commentary on Ron Paul was also right on the mark. He ain't going anywhere soon, per his second-place finish in Minnesota's caucuses. He quite possibly will have as many delegates as a second-place Santorum or Romney. I still doubt, however, that translates into influence over party doctrine, in the short or long term.

Gingrich, who didn't even qualify for the Missouri ballot, could be finished, for real this time. 

Santorum, who has won more contests than Romney now (4:3), is poised to be the GOP comeback kid. He is likelier to excite both mainstream Republicans unhappy with their Romney's candidacy as well as young conservative activists.

And despite his remarks that college shouldn't necessarily be in every young person's future, Santorum's populist roots make him more attractive to your average young voter who is hungry for a populist message this campaign. (You may recall his disagreement with Gingrich...arguing that a wealthy Romney should pay something of a fair share of taxes.)

Tonight, we already know more about Santorum and Gingrich's political legacies. Wesley, bear in mind, all of the numbers are not in. But let me ask you a question, in terms of sheer demographics, so you can report them tomorrow for our readers:

How did each candidate fare, respectively, in terms of the youth vote, in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri?

Paul's young following, place in GOP history already cemented

I disagree with the premise of your last post, Alexander.

In 2008, Ron Paul ran a campaign that it would be fair to describe as "ill-defined." He had little organization, disjointed grassroots efforts and little ground gain in crucial caucus states.

When he wrapped up his second bid for president in 2008, he offered no promise to his supporters that he'd be back in 2012. Many argued, as you do now, that his young throngs of supporters would disappear.

Even so, his eager young supporters dug in, banded together and stuck around for another four years — and have now propelled the once 5% name-recognition candidate to the status of a household name. Ron Paul's young supporters aren't going anywhere. Period.

Now as for the question of whether he'll influence the RNC platform — I hate to say it, but you're off-base again. Ron Paul has ALREADY influenced the RNC platform.

Auditing the Federal Reserve? Addressing the debt?

These were uniquely Paul stances just a year ago that have now found their way into the mainstream GOP thinking. There is no question that many of the economic stances that Republicans take in 2012 will result directly from Paul's now-7-year-national campaign.

As for his "isolationist" foreign policy — which, closely mirrors the foreign policy platform that propelled George W. Bush to the White House in 2000 — has caught on with many Americans and is widely-supported by active military members.

Reporting from Bloomberg today argues that Paul will, in fact, amass enough delegates to influence the GOP platform:

It's hard to argue that a candidate who earns upwards of 200 delegates, as both Bloomberg and CNN have projected, won't influence the party platform moving forward.

As I've argued, and Sarah Palin and other GOP pundits have agreed, harvesting Paul's eager young voters is crucial to the future of the party. Mitt Romney is clearly buying that line of thinking, and continues to forge an alliance with Paul.

As for his avenues for further political consequence — how about that Tea Party thing he founded back in 2007? Then there's also that popular senator from Kentucky who bears the same last name.

It's a mistake to measure Paul's political consequence on his ability (or lack thereof) to win caucuses and primaries. He's not an opportunist looking to get back into the national spotlight, he's an issues candidate looking to mold the national discourse.

When he doesn't win the GOP nomination, he will most likely continue to campaign on his economic platform — forcing the eventual candidate, and President Obama, to court his zealous supporters.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Paul use the staying power he's leveraged through the "Campaign for Liberty" and "Young Americans for Liberty" groups, as well as his various SuperPACs to influence presidential politics for years to come.

But let's move beyond Ron Paul. What about the others? Assuming Mitt Romney continues on his path to GOP victory, what are the political legacies of Gingrich and Santorum?

Paul's young supporters will disappear if he doesn't clarify ill-defined campaign

Unless Paul declares his intent to run as a third-party candidate, my reporting suggests he is unlikely to expand his base, even within the youth vote bloc, during the remainder of the cycle. He is also unlikely to amass enough GOP delegate support to influence the August platform at the RNC in Tampa Bay.

Interestingly, the Republicans will congregate this summer in the state that has proven, thus far, the least enthusiastic for Paul (and one that, according to several studies we've cited at SCOOP2012, has the fewest politically engaged young people).

That is, of course, the Sunshine State.

In one of the pre-Fl. primary debates, Paul offered little hope to his zealous college-aged loyalists that he would further capitalize on the momentum and increased media spotlight he has won as a result of their contributions. He promised no third-party run, should he not be the nominee. And, at this point, we can safely say that he will not be the Republicans' choice. He is unlikely to even influence the convention's agenda to include planks that support his isolationist or anti-Fed stances.

My take: His young supporters will gradually disengage, possibly even disappear, if he does not clarify his ill-defined campaign strategy. We know his views, but he has no practical path to further political consequence. Wesley: Do you agree?

SCOOP2012 on PBS: Young American voters and the 2012 campaign

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