Saturday, January 14, 2012

Wanted: Active leadership for Gen Y

In your most recent post, Wes, you ask me if I "blame young people" for their lack of enthusiasm in the electoral process, particularly given the nation's ever partisan and polarized politics (and what is almost sure to be a nasty general election campaign).

Even under those circumstances, it's inexcusable whenever young people refuse to empower themselves. I think the civics recession is devastating the body politic, even if today's generation is participating just as sparsely as ones before it.

Last presidential campaign, I reported on efforts to create a youth convention to specifically address young people's concerns. That never happened in earnest. And, moreover, it never garnered the public scrutiny it warranted. Perhaps, Gen Y will revitalize such efforts soon.

Let me pose my two-part question to you, Wes: Besides a Paul candidacy, how can young people channel their energies constructively in the run-up to November? (Slate explains here why Paul appeals to twentysomething men.)

What vehicles, be it in journalism or public policy, should be employed to encourage eligible young voters to register and to vote this cycle? One matter with which we are sure to grapple here is reform to this fall's commissioned presidential debates to ensure they are far more dynamic and interactive than they have been in recent years.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Without minority engagement, youth turnout will continue to disappoint

Well, Alexander, that might be the first time I've ever heard someone call a media description of Ron Paul's support "overstated"!

In my mind, a strong third place finish in Iowa and a convincing second spot in New Hampshire are all the proof we need to deem Paul's young support significant.

The most recent poll I've seen has the 76-year-old surging to 20 percent in South Carolina. For someone who Gingrich and Trump have publicly reamed as an unserious candidate, 20 percent among Republicans in a conservative state like South Carolina is impressive.

Other than Paulites, you're right: young voters have been largely quiet during this campaign cycle.

And that has nothing to do with this generation being any less engaged then their parents. I think it's actually much easier to explain.

Today's young voters are more moderate then the older generations. GOP wedge issues such as abortion and gay marriage are turnoffs for them. Meanwhile, they are more inclined to oppose preemptive wars and nation-building in the middle east.

It's impossible to name a viable GOP candidate (minus Paul) who in anyway lines up with those generally held views. Young voters see this Republican slate as largely representative of the GOP of old, a party with which most youth aren't eager to align.

As the Forbes article you cited points out, 2008 had TWO contentious primaries. It wasn't just Barack Obama who drove out the youth vote. Democratic candidates including Hillary Clinton and John Edwards were exciting young voters and the eventual Republican candidate John McCain had across-the-aisle appeal.

This year, there is no Democratic primary to turn out young liberals, plus the GOP in at least a dozen states to enact voter ID laws that would disenfranchise young (often minority) voters at pre-Civil Rights Act levels.

On top of that, the most untapped source of young supports lies with Hispanics, the nation's most rapidly expanding demographic. The GOP is making some efforts to court the Hispanic vote, especially in Florida, but as long as the Republican party pushes a hard line on amnesty and deportation - and continues to be on the wrong side of immigration issues on the state level (see the immigration policies championed by GOPers in Arizona and Alabama)

So, Alexander: with a push for tougher voter ID laws, the disenfranchisement of minority voters and the entrenched partisan views of the GOP frontrunners, can you blame young voters for not turning out for this field?

Thursday, January 12, 2012

For youth in 2012, Iowa and NH are different story void of Obama-mania

Wes, the Associated Press is hearing your analysis of Paul...and what you and I have reported on the ground from Ohio to Massachusetts.

In the most recent report of Paul's youth surge and zealous college supporters, the AP's headline reads: "At 76, oldest candidate Ron Paul's message of personal freedom is captivating youth vote." At this point, media reports of young people's alliance with Paul may be overstated. Let's wait to see what real electoral impact these young libertarians for Paul will have, both on GOP Super Tuesday and if/when they jump ship for a third-party bid.

At this point, realistically speaking, Huntsman would fare best in a Unity08-esque effort designed to champion a moderate presidential ticket. Young people would respond enthusiastically to such a political shake-up, according to own reporting since the '08 cycle.

Over at Forbes, I've read perhaps the most incisive commentary yet on young people's participation this cycle. According to the plain data, as Stephen Richer of RK Research reports, youth turnout, void of Obama-mania, has shrunk considerably from the '08 numbers.
2012 youth turnout, New Hampshire – 15 percent (CIRCLE)
2008 youth turnout, New Hampshire – 43 percent (CIRCLE)
2012 youth turnout, Iowa – 4 percent (CIRCLE)
2008 youth turnout, Iowa – 13 percent (CIRCLE)
In 2012, 8,800 young voters caucused for Ron Paul in Iowa. (CIRCLE)
In 2008, 30,000 young voters caucused for President Obama in Iowa. (CIRCLE)
This leads me to a very direct question, Wes: Amid the sour economy, so many heartfelt concerns about the future of the country, and unrelenting grievances posited against their current commander-in-chief, why are young people not going to the polls?

For me, the answer goes back to the deficit of civic education in America. The Christian Science Monitor convincingly opined that our national recession in civics is alarming (much as I editorialized in the Monitor as well as in The Washington Post this past summer).

In order to realize the importance of the ballot box, a young person needs to connect the dots between their own democratic empowerment and the livelihood of their people.

If youth don't learn about the essential fabric of American government (as they are not, sadly, in huge numbers), they will not register to vote. If they don't register, they won't vote. And they will continue NOT to vote.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Paul still the choice of young voters

As was the case in the days following Iowa, the most discouraging statistic following last night's New Hampshire primary is that, according to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, just 15 percent of eligible voters under the age of 30-years-old showed up.

That should have the GOP concerned — big time.

If we're to believe, as conventional wisdom and the major media outlets have jammed into our minds, that Ron Paul is not a legitimate candidate, then the GOP looks like it has no chance of capturing the young vote in 2012.

Look at the numbers. Paul boasted nearly 47 percent of young voters in New Hampshire — while Huntsman, the candidate who everyone who isn't a Republican has been trying to force on GOP voters, took home a measly 14 percent.

Any hope that young voters will rally around the former Utah governor is misguided (we'll see if he even has enough money for a plane ticket to South Carolina). After spending six months campaigning nowhere but in New Hampshire, Huntsman can spin his unconvincing third place finish however he'd like, but we know the truth.

As CNN contributor Roland Martin so elegantly put it last night: Huntsman has got to be drunk if he thinks he's still in this race.

But despite the hype that comes with being the first primary in the nation, some are speculating that the media frenzy is just that — a media frenzy.

In an interesting piece in the Washington Post today, columnist Dana Milbank concludes:

The New Hampshire primary just wasn’t much of a story.

And I agree.

Rather than creating a new narrative or tossing a fresh dynamic into the GOP race, last night's primary reaffirmed what we already know.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the key of GOPers is to rally the young energy behind the Paul campaign and bring those voters (oft labeled "tattooed and grungy college kids) into the Republican tent.

That could be the explanation for front runner Mitt Romney's avoidance of anything that could be taken as criticism of Paul. The victor in both Iowa and NH, Romney has what some have speculated is a non-aggression pact with Paul, and yesterday, the Texas congressman even came to Romney's defense against criticism being leveled at him by Huntsman.

For Romney, appeasing Paulites is a perfect strategy.

By avoiding soundbites slamming the aging Libertarian standard-barer, Romney places himself in a prime position to be on the receiving end of the delegates won by Paul through this spring's primaries.

What pundits keep forgetting is — in a primary that could last well into the cycle — Ron Paul could very well be the kingmaker. And Romney: he's eying the crown.

So tell me Alexander, is Huntsman finished (note that he's polling in 5th place in South Carolina)? What about other middle-of-the-pack candidates?

Yes, they can...back a third party

Wes, I want to answer your question with a resounding YES.  As New Hampshire's youth split across the GOP slate (between Paul, Huntsman and Romney), the opportunity for young people, now and beyond the primary cycle, to channel their energies via a third-party campaign is ripe as ever.

First, to the New Hampshire polls, where Romney was the victor but failed once again to beat the 40 percent threshold.

In the conventional political power structure, young people too frequently feel disenfranchised, a rampant excuse for not participating in the electoral process. According to Medill Reports (Chicago), the Iowa caucus youth turnout was "down considerably." 
According to research compiled by The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, only 4 percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 participated in this year’s caucusus, down considerably from the 13 percent participating in 2008.
That is an indisputably disconcerting figure. Moreover, it only fuels further speculation about the new paradigm you describe...for many young people, a last hope for progress. (This could take the form of a Paul campaign, another Perot-style rebel candidacy, a Bloomberg-Huntsman unity ticket, or something we have yet to conceive of...)

In New Hampshire, there is not yet specific youth-centric data from the state's voter registration. Overall turnout was expected to be record-breaking, but, at this hour, it appears this year's vote will not rival 2008's.

The conservative news source Newsmax reports: "Of the 9 percent of New Hampshire voters ages 18 to 24, Paul grabbed 47 percent of the vote with Romney at 26, Huntsman at 14, Santorum at 7 and Gingrich at 3."

Tomorrow morning, there will likely be more precise reporting, but what do you make of these numbers, Wes...for the candidates - and their youthful followers?

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Without clout or cash, Gen Y will remain marginalized

Well, first I've got to say that the prospect of Huntsman carrying 15 percent of the vote still seems implausible: The most generous polling has him at 17 percent, but his worst polling performances still place him at just 7 percent.

And even a second place finish for the former governor won't necessarily revive his troubled campaign. Look, for instance, at Rick Santorum who, for all intents and purposes, won the Iowa caucus. His campaign reported one day of massive fundraising, and then promptly returned to "also-ran" status.

Frankly, minus a convincing first place finish, Huntsman will continue to lack the cash infusion and ground game necessary to compete in South Carolina, Florida and Ohio — all essential if he is to be a real contender for the nomination.

Maybe the stylish leather jacket he's been sporting on the campaign trail will be that missing link that draws in young voters. But something tells me that won't be the case.

Our dual questions about Ron Paul's devoted following (AFP had an interesting profile of some of his young supporters in New Hampshire, yesterday) remain the most consequential unknown of the GOP primary, even more so then who the nominee will be. If the GOP continues to fail to mobilize an energetic young voter base, then it will likely lose the national campaign. But that young base will never be galvanized if "libertarian" continues to be considered taboo in Republican circles.

But the greater question, as you posed Alexander, is whether or not millennials will claim control over our electoral politics by occupying the polls in 2012.

My quick response: No. (More to come after today's polls close.)

Alexander, is 2012 the year that young voters ditch the two-party system and rally around a third party candidate (Americans Elect? Libertarians? Ron Paul?) whose platform reflects issues important to young voters?

Monday, January 9, 2012

Will we sell ourselves short?

Wes, you ask several critical questions.

Huntsman and Paul, sources on the ground confirm, are the most alluring candidates for young people. If Huntsman can carry over 15 percent of the vote, he may garner a newfound media spotlight...one that will enable him to salvage his campaign and redouble his efforts in primary and caucus states with politically active independent-minded young people.

Regardless of whether Paul takes second or third, he will remain a potentially game-changing candidate. The Dr. in or out, his loyalists will matter in a general election campaign. As you mention, Wes, that is the growing concern for the Republican Party: Will Paul's youthful supporters ultimately coalescence around the more traditional GOP standard-bearer...or will they launch a third party insurgent bid?

It is an open question, and it will be for some time. The answer may be dictated by whether Paulites are more outraged against Obama, specifically, or against the corporate-financed two-party political establishment...what Paulites truly despise. In New Hampshire, my suspicion, based on the very public outcry against what has effectively become the Obama economy, is that young people will vote in large numbers on Tuesday.

Nonetheless, I am still realistic. Given their mixed track record, it is hard to believe that college-aged voters will flock to the voting booths in a record millennial vote. Should it not be that inconceivable? One tech writer at Forbes laments the skepticism of older folks who doubt today's youth will realize progress.

But lasting change would require political clout Gen Y currently does not possess. Will this generation of twentysomething voters fail to come out en masse and thereby sell itself short? Despite Obama's victory in 2008, young people did not claim the electoral mantle as significantly as young activists expected or wanted. How can they avoid a repeat performance?

Wes, does that remain the most essential question to you, as it does to me?

Young and Restless

Alexander mentioned a story from the Christian Science Monitor yesterday, which notes that young people in New Hampshire tend to turnout more reliably than they do in other states of the nation.

In an open primary state, like NH — especially one that, due to its early role in the 2012 primary calendar, serves partially as a king-maker — a mobilized base of young voters could turn the tides in favor of one candidate or doom the campaign of another.

This time around, both former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Texas Congressman Ron Paul are hoping to capitalize on the frustration felt by young voters — both GOPers and Democrats alike — to catapult their oft-marginalized campaigns into the mainstream.

Last night, CBS News published a breakdown of just how crucial the young vote will be to both the Huntsman and Paul efforts, as well as to the campaign of longtime frontrunner Mitt Romney.

The most recent polling shows that nearly a quarter of young voters who'll hit the polls in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary remain undecided. That shouldn't come as a surprise. With the economy in the tank, many young voters are ready to cast a vote against incumbent Barack Obama. Of those expressing an allegiance, 39% say they'll support Ron Paul, 25% will say they'll back Mitt Romney and just 7% say they are supporting Jon Huntsman.

One thing is for sure: If Huntsman — a moderate with a proven track record for reaching across the aisle and avoiding partisan rhetoric — fails to capture a significant chunk of young voters and does not perform well overall, his longshot candidacy is over.

For the other two, things aren't quite as cut-and-dry.

Even if Ron Paul successfully captures the plurality of young voters in New Hampshire (as he did in Iowa, with 48%) his battle remains persuading the bulk of older Republicans to subscribe to his back-to-the-future ideals of small government and non-interventionist foreign policy.

Meanwhile, if Mitt Romney continues to fail to steal away young support and momentum from Paul, he may still win the nomination but, his general election campaign could be doomed by a lack of mobilized young voters.

In the long-term, the key remains convincing Paul's energetic young supporters to stick with the GOP, even if the 76-year-old doctor is not the nominee. It remains to be seen if the GOP will bring Paulites into the fold at next year's RNC Convention, or force them to their own convention as was the case in 2008.

Alexander: With New Hampshire voters hitting the polls tomorrow, which candidate do you think will be most successful with young voters? Will Ron Paul maintain his stranglehold on GOP ballot casters under the age of 30? Will young voters in NH toss Huntsman's campaign the life vest it so desperately needs? Or, will Mitt Romney finally resonate with young primary voters, and further cement his frontrunner status?

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Granite State's maverick youth could unify behind Huntsman

Wes, thanks for kicking us off. Here, at SCOOP2012, we will incorporate our own reporting and analysis, based on sourcing: all the campaign whispers and cries on the ground.

Young people are excited, Wes, but still preoccupied with realities of 2012 for your twentysomething: A depressed economy, continued post-grad joblessness, unrelenting college loans and our collective national debt. They are fed up with politics as usual in D.C.

For now, we'll consider Tuesday's New Hampshire vote, the first-in-the-nation primary of the GOP contests. For now, Libertarian enthusiasm for Congressman Paul (and, to a lesser extent, Evangelical zeal for former Senator Santorum) have overtaken the Obama "youth buzz" of the 2008 cycle.

The Christian Science Monitor has begged the crucial momentary question: Will young people turn out on Tuesday?

Young people are likelier to vote if they believe their impact has real consequence. It could, both in reshaping the Republican campaign and the November electorate. The New Hampshire college-aged primary voters do not share the disposition of most Iowa caucus-goers.

Watch out for the Granite State's youth to wage a fight for the most maverick (and least party-tailored candidate): the moderate Jon Huntsman, Jr., a former governor of Utah who "lives free" from partisanship like no other GOP candidate. His center-right views and criticism of Obama economics could be the most persuasive for the youth vote.

Beyond Iowa

For the first time in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Campaign, the people have spoken.

But while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Sen. Rick Santorum sat atop the list of Iowa vote getters, the final tallies forecast what could be discouraging news for those hoping youth political engagement will increase this campaign cycle.

Nearly half of all GOP caucus goers threw their support behind Texas Congressman Ron Paul, a 76-year-old, three-time presidential candidate who pundits and the mainstream media have declared an impossible long shot for the Oval Office.

With a Paul candidacy highly unlikely, will the GOP base be able to mobilize young voters behind the other contenders? What could the middle of the pack candidates —like Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry — do to harness the excitement and manpower of the young electorate for their supporter base?

Those are the questions we'll ask here at Scoop2012, where we plan to tackle every second of the 2012 presidential campaign and specifically examine why this race is, and should be, important to voters 18-30-years-old.

The format will be simple.

We'll give you a rundown of the daily buzz about young voters, asking the unspoken questions and breaking down the jumble of political headlines each morning into an easy-to-read, conversational abstract that highlights the issues that matter most to American youth.

After dissecting each morning's headlines, I'll toss things over to my counterpart, Alexander Heffner, for his analysis of how exactly they relate to millennials.

So Alexander — At this point in the race, how would you gauge young people's excitement for the current GOP slate?