Nevada gives new perspective on Paul's youth-centered campaign

Well, these caucuses have been an absolute mess.

In Iowa, full ballot boxes went missing and a week after the voting was over we found out that it was Rick Santorum, not Mitt Romney who was victorious.

As for last night's Nevada caucus, we're still missing 25 percent of the vote.

But with the votes we've got counted as of earlier this morning, a few things are clear. Mitt Romney met expectations, easily soaring to victory in a state he won convincingly in 2008. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich actually outperformed expectations, at least for now. Once all of the Clark County votes are counted, we could still see Gingrich fall into third place.

For now, the most disappointing night was for Ron Paul, who was banking on a strong showing in the western caucus states to propel his delegate-driven strategy. As of the latest count, he earned 18 percent of the vote, improvement from the 14 percent he brought in during the 2008 primary.

Again, without a complete breakdown of the numbers it's impossible to speculate too much about what these results mean. One thing worth noting, specifically with the Paul performance, is that it most likely did not come on the back of young voters, who make up a laughably small portion of the Nevada electorate.

As ABC News reports:

Ron Paul, who pushed to do well in Nevada this year, may suffer from a deficit of self-identified independent voters, a group in which he’s tended to do better. They account for just about two in 10 caucus-goers in Nevada today, better than their share in 2008, but still heavily outnumbered by mainline Republicans. Paul’s also done well among young voters; today the entrance poll indicates that they make up barely one in 10 caucus-goers.

Does an all-around solid performance (18 percent isn't too shabby) despite a small number of young voters give the Paul campaign hope that it has found a way to expand its base?

Memorable Mitt moment may haunt campaign's courtship of young voters

Wesley, in short, presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney's statement - or minced words, as he and his campaign surrogates would insist - about his lack of concern for the poor may well haunt him this coming November.

I already see the Obama campaign pouncing on national television and their onslaught against Romney's anti-poor belief system will only become more furious as the general election campaign approaches. Both men have insisted, directly or implicitly, that they are out of touch with the American worker. But Romney's comment gives ammunition to the president's claim over the governor's.

It is entirely plausible that the campaign for Obama 2.0 will use Romney's slip-heard-round-the-world in negative advertising against his candidacy. (One popular Republican dubiously claims Team Obama ran the most negative campaigns on the airwaves, according to a Washington Post report.) Would such "excerpting" of Romney be justified, and would it resonate with economically dispossessed young voters?

Those are two important questions citizens will have to consider carefully. But I, for one, don't think the poor will be considered taboo or the proverbial political hot potato this cycle. They are not outcasts. As the cost of living has increased across socioeconomic lines, the general population, especially young voters, are likelier to associate with the poor's plight.

Demographic data show that many more millions are hovering just around the poverty line - afraid they could slip into total financial unrest at any moment - than are happily, upward-moving middle-class. And public opinion confirms that many more Americans believe that tax cuts for the wealthy and foreign entanglements have bankrupted the economy more than social welfare for the poor.

Consequently, Romney's declaration that a "safety net" currently protects the most vulnerable Americans could prove destructive if the country's political mood turns any more populist. 

President Obama, on the other hand, positioned himself in the opposite political direction yesterday at the National Prayer Breakfast.

...It’s also about the biblical call to care for the least of these –- for the poor; for those at the margins of our society. To answer the responsibility we’re given in Proverbs to “Speak up for those who cannot speak for themselves, for the rights of all who are destitute.” And for others, it may reflect the Jewish belief that the highest form of charity is to do our part to help others stand on their own.

As anyone can observe, President Obama could no better exploit on Romney's gaffe, while staying true to his core message.

So, Wes, you previously said the president, coming off his State of the Union address and Ann Arbor (University of Michigan) visit, is doing everything in his power to win back young voters. Does that still ring true?

Timing, Trump may mask Romney gaffe and its impact on young voters

Fortunately for Romney, his ill-advised comments about the poor may get swept under the rug - for now at least.

Any negative headlines he would have gotten this morning have been overshadowed by distracting reports that reality-TV star Donald Trump is set to endorse Newt Gingrich sometime today.

Now, I can't think of any less consequential news, but fortunately for Romney, the Trump sideshow will completely distract everyone from his questionable statement yesterday.

Romney needs to count his blessings, and then seriously think over the way he's been phrasing his responses to economic questions. As it stands, he continues to hand ammunition to not only his GOP challengers, but also to the Democrats who are prepping to take him on come the summer.

As the New York Times reports:

Taken in the full context of his remarks, as Mr. Romney urged reporters to do, his statement appears more benign: “I’m not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there. If it needs a repair, I’ll fix it. I’m not concerned about the very rich — they’re doing just fine.”

But for a campaign that has been accused of taking Mr. Obama’s remarks out of context, the sentence about the poor immediately became cataloged in a growing list of comments by Mr. Romney that suggested a distance from the concerns of struggling Americans.

As his tax returns became a growing issue, Mr. Romney said his speaking fees of more than $370,000 amounted to “not very much” money.

When talking about taxation in August, he said, “Corporations are people” — a line that will not go away, despite its context: “Everything corporations earn ultimately goes to people. Where do you think it goes?”

And he said, “I like being able to fire people” for bad service, just as his leadership at the venture capital firm, Bain Capital, was being questioned.

So, the latest remarks about the poor play into the narrative that his critics like to draw — that he is an out-of-touch capitalist. Even conservatives are furious with Mr. Romney.

In many ways this misstep is extremely similar to Newt Gingrich's comments about unmotivated, impoverished youth. By using poor, confusing and racially charged wording, both candidates created distractions and potentially disenfranchised independent and young voters.

But if we learned anything from Gingrich's janitor comments it's that GOP voters don't really care.

The same could be said for Romney's debate bet with Rick Perry - when he offered up $10,000, which the media was convinced would finally prove that Romney is out of touch and would be a game change. Now, months later, Romney is still the front runner, has won the most important of the primaries thus far and the $10,000 bet almost never comes up anymore.

Now don't get me wrong, I can see these new comments about poverty coming back to haunt Romney, but not until the general election.

Alexander: These latest comments are the most recent in what has been a long line of gaffes for GOP candidates during this election. Which of the gaffes do you think has been most harmful?

"Mitt Romney, you're no Tom Paine," youth are likely to declare

After Mitt Romney's gaffe this morning on CNN ("I'm not concerned about the very poor"), I think the former Bay State governor will have a tough time selling the populism of his Florida victory speech last night to younger voters.

In whatever context, you can't express apathy (or antipathy?) towards those hit the hardest financially, win Wall Street's money handily over the other candidates and embrace the multi-million/billion dollar class, and then honestly quote the radical populist-revolutionary-Common Sense scribe Thomas Paine. Or expect to win young voters hungry for a populist - but not necessarily progressive - president who will deliver economic reform.

Thanks to an excellent course I enrolled in recently, I know a thing or two about Paine, and he would not be a Romneynite. For Paine, a political gadfly who challenged mainstream Church dictates and religious doctrine, believed in economic equity, first and foremost.

Now, we're all wondering if the presumptive Republican nominee can galvanize a youthful conservative base....and if he can court as well as compete with Obama for the youth vote come November.

Most of the data, relative to trends of the youth vote, are no less skeptical than I am today...although today's news is coloring my perception quite heartily, at the moment.

I do believe, based on Romney's comment and his defense of it, that Paul will further monopolize young voters in the upcoming primary and caucus states. Wesley, perhaps Romney will recover beyond Nevada and Maine, but his words today stung most young voters - something I report from social media as well as conversations with sources on the ground. 

I dare say, cautiously, Romney could not have delivered a worse performance after his first 18-29 bracket win in Florida. So I'll pose my question: Might Romney not garner millennial votes by the same margin he did in Florida for the foreseeable future?

Pro-Paul caucus states boast most youthful demographics

Two things are certain, the results out of Florida were encouraging for Mitt Romney, but discouraging for Republicans as a whole.

Although none of the other three candidates came anywhere close to challenging Romney in the Sunshine State, all three have vowed to remain in to the race deep into the campaign.

What the candidates don't realize is that their needless and prolonged competition is cancer for the Republican Party.

Take a look at the voter turnout numbers in Florida - which will be a vital swing state, a must-win if the GOP thinks it's going to oust President Obama from the Oval Office.

When compared the the number of people who showed up to choose between McCain, Romney and Mike Huckabee in 2008, the number of Florida voters who casts ballots yesterday looks pretty pathetic.

In fact, Florida is the first state so far this cycle where voter turnout has gone down when compared to 2008. Not an encouraging sign for Republicans, who need decisive wins in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania is they want to take the White House.

Competition clearly hasn't mobilized the Republican base, and it may be the best strategy for the GOP to clear the field, unite behind Romney and engage in a yearlong attack on the incumbent president.

While none of the challengers have any intention of stepping aside, the upcoming Western caucus states could spell trouble for Gingrich.

Young voters will be absolutely key to the standings in the upcoming caucuses, but it's worth pointing out that Ron Paul (the favorite among millennials) in fact underperformed in the Iowa caucus. Has Paul's organization and overwhelmingly loyal support been overstated or will youth turn out in mass and hand him victory in an upcoming state?

Romney, finally, wins top spot with young voters in Florida landslide

I hate to say I told you so, Wes, but it appears I did with Monday's post arguing that Florida's young people were poised to buck the Paul flavor and catapult Romney to nominee status. I kid, of course! You were just being smartly cautious...as this may be Romney's only outright win with young people.

FOX News

Defeating Gingrich by a double-digit margin for the Florida prize, Romney has regained momentum, as FOX News and The New York Times report, in his pursuit of the GOP nomination. 

Early data suggests that Romney - for the first time in this primary cycle - led with the critical millennial demographic. CNN exit polls also show Romney leading over Paul by 13% in the 18-29 bracket. At the same time, we should not overstate youth enthusiasm, even among Republicans, for Romney. The current, if tentative projection, is that young people only represented a 5% share of the vote.

This is a short post, to which I'm sure you'll retort tomorrow morning. The next two contests, both caucuses, are in Nevada and Maine: Wes, will Romney exploit his Florida "Big Mo"to connect with a majority of youthful caucus-goers in those quite ethnically disparate states?

Context is the most important factor when gauging Florida's youth vote

Mitt Romney has yet to win the youth vote in any of the 2012 nominating contests thus far and, to be honest, it's unclear how he'll do with young voters today in the Sunshine State.

There are two reasons for that.

First, the polling coming out of Florida has been all over the place. A ton of polls have all but given the state to Romney - showing him leading Gingrich by 8 or 9 percent. But, a few polls still show Gingrich, who shook up the race with his South Carolina win, leading Romney by a few points. It's impossible to know which of these two candidates is truly leading coming into the vote, and it's worth noting that while Gingrich outscored his pre-primary polling in South Carolina, Romney has yet to earn more support in the ballot box than he did in pre-primary polls in any of the three nominating contests.

Meanwhile, it's important to note that Florida is a demographic anomaly when it comes to how its voters break down in terms of age.

According to the Pew Research Center, young voters make up 19 percent of the electorate in Florida (compared to 22 percent nationally). Meanwhile, voters above the age of 55 account for 40 percent of the registered voters in Florida - compared to just 34 percent nationwide.

On top of all of that, a new study released yesterday found that young voters in Florida are some of the least politically engaged in the country. Even if Romney earns a large percentage of the young voters tonight, it's dangerous to assume he's finally won over the Republican youth. The key will be the raw numbers - how many young voters actually show up for Romney - and taking into account that young-voter favorite Ron Paul hasn't done one ounce of campaigning in the Sunshine State.

Take, for example, the speculation that the positive movement Newt Gingrich saw with young voters in South Carolina, which I then speculated could be the most encouraging statistic coming out of his primary victory. Just a week later, no one is arguing that Gingrich is poised to mobilize a mass of young voters in Florida (or anywhere for that matter).

In addition to wondering how young voters will turn out tonight, there are a few other important questions to consider:

• Will the endorsement of Puerto Rican Gov. Luis Fortuno propel Romney among Hispanic voters - who are truly the key demographic in Florida?
• If Romney earns more support among evangelicals than Gingrich (which the most recent polling is showing), does it completely devalidate the former Speaker of the House's victory in South Carolina?
• Ron Paul made the decision not to campaign in Florida, however, until last week, Rick Santorum was stumping in the Sunshine State. Santorum won't do well tonight, but will his performance be dismal enough for him to drop out?

But no matter what happens tonight in Florida, it's important not to jump to any conclusions (including conclusions about Ron Paul, who has long stated that he's banking on caucus states later on in the calender). 

Even once all of the votes are counted tonight, the vast majority of the GOP delegates will still be up for grabs (including 172 in California, 155 in Texas, 95 in New York, 76 in Georgia and 72 in Pennsylvania).

Alexander: So with this primary far from over, what is the best *long-term* strategy for favorites Gingrich and Romney to lock up the nomination based on the states who have yet to cast ballots?

Bucking the trend, Florida youth could catapult Romney to nominee status

One of the problematic features of this Republican primary fight - for the party in 2012 and beyond - is that conservative youth have organized behind a candidate who, at this point we can say, is incapable of winning the nomination.

In 2008 the Democrats had a rivalry between two candidates, both of whom appealed to the party's pivotal demographic bases, and both of whom were in serious contention for the nomination. In other words, in the '08 cycle, young people unified around the two candidates who were credible nominees.

This year, as we've discussed at length at SCOOP2012, the greatest outpouring of youth support has been for Ron Paul, a candidate who we agree is no longer viable in the long-term as a Republican candidate. (If anything, he's a possible third-party insurgent, though in the most recent debates, he's completely downplayed that prospect.)

This is the problem for the GOP: The candidate who most appealed to the party's zealous young hearts and minds will - most likely - neither be on nor anywhere near the ticket come this fall.

We have asked here before, as the National Journal did recently, if Paul's young backers will ultimately support a Romney candidacy. Among 18-29 year-olds, the second-place finishes after Paul in the contests so far follow:

Iowa: Santorum (trailing by 25 points)
New Hampshire: Romney (trailing by 22 points)
South Carolina: Gingrich
(as you see, trailing by only 3 points compared two)
 


Now, we arrive once again in the Sunshine State. That's good news for these runners-up to Paul in the millennial demographic...because Florida is one state in which the youth bloc is more diverse and not as über-friendly to Paul.

The state, as a whole, is staunchly anti-Paul: Advocacy for Medicare and Social Security, concern for Israel's security and animosity towards Castro's Cuba. This may well trickle down into young voters.

Hence, the non-youth frontrunners have the opportunity to galvanize their stalled courtship of young people, and for the conservative college-aged grassroots apparatus to catapult their campaigns to a more powerful position within the party (as well as in their eventual general election appeals to moderates). 

A Romney win over Paul, for instance, in the Fl. 18-29 demographic could be a huge momentum-booster and secure his path to the nomination. For Romney, a decisive win in Florida could prove not unlike Obama's Iowa victory in 2008, in which he captured the youthful soul of the party.


Wesley, is this a realistic outcome for Romney out of Florida - to not only win but to consolidate  the youth vote? Or do you believe Paul will once again garner the top vote among millennials, and if so by what margin?