Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Will pain at the pump drive young voters to GOP candidates?

While writing for The Wall Street Journal last summer, I conducted what remains one of the most entertaining interviews I've ever had.

I was covering monthly rent rates for New York City, and figured why not give a ring to the most outspoken opponent of high rent — the one and only Jimmy McMillian.

Now, I haven't reached out to Mr. McMillian for this post, but I'm pretty sure he'd agree that — like rent — "gas prices are too damn high."

But while both sides of the aisle agree that lower prices will be nice, the question remains just who is to blame for the high gas prices, and whether frustration over them will cause backlash from the American people toward the incumbent president when they hit the polls this November.

GOP candidates, specifically Newt Gingrich, seem to think so.

The former Speaker of the House has launched his #250gas campaign, centered around the promise that "Newt gas" would cost just $2.50.

I've yet to see evidence that the campaign has been particularly effective with young voters, even as it has reached the ears of most Americans. A Washington Post poll released earlier this week found that nearly two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the way Obama has handled gas prices in the U.S.

I'd be eager to see a poll directly asking young people if they fault Obama for the high gas prices, but in the meantime, one thing is clear — young voters do care about energy dependence.

According to a 2011 poll conducted by Generation Opportunity:

61 percent of young adults rated energy dependency among the top three national security issues facing the United States, along with national debt and indebtedness to foreign powers. In the same poll, 70 percent of young adults indicated they would increase the production of domestic energy sources like oil, natural gas, and coal. Also, due to the poor economy, 77 percent of young Americans indicated they either have or will delay major life decisions as a result of the poor economy including decisions to start a family, have children, buy a home, and save for retirement.
Young voters are certainly paying attention to the continually rising cost of gas, but what remains unclear is whether pegging a long-term presidential contest on a constantly changing economic variable is a wise political move.

Generation Opportunity's poll also found that young voters rank Energy Dependence as the second most important political issue (trailing the national debt).

So, Alexander, how will the dialogue over rising and unstable gas prices play out at the ballot box in November? Will it hurt President Obama and just how important is the price of gas to young voters?

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