Monday, May 7, 2012

An 18-29 win for Romney is eroding President Obama's 2/3 margin of victory

First, we ought to consider the nature of a youth vote victory for Governor Romney this cycle. Even a slight decline in President Obama's 2008-level margin could be considered a win.

We have reported here ‪ad nauseam that capturing at least 2/3 of the 18-29 demographic is essential to Obama's bid for re-eletion.

As Alexandra Jaffe wrote recently in National Journal, Obama is concertedly pushing for young voters "in hopes of [an] Election Day payoff."

"The White House pledged...to help lower-income youth find summer jobs in a move likely to appeal to younger voters crucial to President Barack Obama's re-election campaign," reports Reuters of the White House's new summer jobs initiative.

In his efforts to rekindle enthusiasm among young people, President Obama has targeted U.S. university hubs in battleground states like Ohio and Virginia. The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire recently chronicled:
There’s a reason Mr. Obama seems particularly interested in rediscovering his mojo with the college set. The votes in those towns may be critical to him in a what’s shaping up to be a close campaign – much more important than they were four years ago. As he hops from quad to quad, however, he may find repeating his 2008 campus magic to be tougher. 
So what is Governor Romney to do? In WSJ columnist Daniel Henninger's recent "Memo to the Youth," he argues that the current administration's policies - particularly its preservation of current entitlements - prevent future economic or job growth (for young people and the country broadly).

The column doesn't address Romney as a potentially positive alternative for young voters.

In a rough economy, it may not be enough to bash Obama's economic policies as a failed, when the presumptive Republican nominee is not proposing specific policies that would enhance social mobility of millennials. Romney also has to stray away from the kind of messages and/or gaffes that turn off struggling young Americans.