Bucking the trend, Florida youth could catapult Romney to nominee status

One of the problematic features of this Republican primary fight - for the party in 2012 and beyond - is that conservative youth have organized behind a candidate who, at this point we can say, is incapable of winning the nomination.

In 2008 the Democrats had a rivalry between two candidates, both of whom appealed to the party's pivotal demographic bases, and both of whom were in serious contention for the nomination. In other words, in the '08 cycle, young people unified around the two candidates who were credible nominees.

This year, as we've discussed at length at SCOOP2012, the greatest outpouring of youth support has been for Ron Paul, a candidate who we agree is no longer viable in the long-term as a Republican candidate. (If anything, he's a possible third-party insurgent, though in the most recent debates, he's completely downplayed that prospect.)

This is the problem for the GOP: The candidate who most appealed to the party's zealous young hearts and minds will - most likely - neither be on nor anywhere near the ticket come this fall.

We have asked here before, as the National Journal did recently, if Paul's young backers will ultimately support a Romney candidacy. Among 18-29 year-olds, the second-place finishes after Paul in the contests so far follow:

Iowa: Santorum (trailing by 25 points)
New Hampshire: Romney (trailing by 22 points)
South Carolina: Gingrich
(as you see, trailing by only 3 points compared two)
 


Now, we arrive once again in the Sunshine State. That's good news for these runners-up to Paul in the millennial demographic...because Florida is one state in which the youth bloc is more diverse and not as über-friendly to Paul.

The state, as a whole, is staunchly anti-Paul: Advocacy for Medicare and Social Security, concern for Israel's security and animosity towards Castro's Cuba. This may well trickle down into young voters.

Hence, the non-youth frontrunners have the opportunity to galvanize their stalled courtship of young people, and for the conservative college-aged grassroots apparatus to catapult their campaigns to a more powerful position within the party (as well as in their eventual general election appeals to moderates). 

A Romney win over Paul, for instance, in the Fl. 18-29 demographic could be a huge momentum-booster and secure his path to the nomination. For Romney, a decisive win in Florida could prove not unlike Obama's Iowa victory in 2008, in which he captured the youthful soul of the party.


Wesley, is this a realistic outcome for Romney out of Florida - to not only win but to consolidate  the youth vote? Or do you believe Paul will once again garner the top vote among millennials, and if so by what margin?