Context is the most important factor when gauging Florida's youth vote

Mitt Romney has yet to win the youth vote in any of the 2012 nominating contests thus far and, to be honest, it's unclear how he'll do with young voters today in the Sunshine State.

There are two reasons for that.

First, the polling coming out of Florida has been all over the place. A ton of polls have all but given the state to Romney - showing him leading Gingrich by 8 or 9 percent. But, a few polls still show Gingrich, who shook up the race with his South Carolina win, leading Romney by a few points. It's impossible to know which of these two candidates is truly leading coming into the vote, and it's worth noting that while Gingrich outscored his pre-primary polling in South Carolina, Romney has yet to earn more support in the ballot box than he did in pre-primary polls in any of the three nominating contests.

Meanwhile, it's important to note that Florida is a demographic anomaly when it comes to how its voters break down in terms of age.

According to the Pew Research Center, young voters make up 19 percent of the electorate in Florida (compared to 22 percent nationally). Meanwhile, voters above the age of 55 account for 40 percent of the registered voters in Florida - compared to just 34 percent nationwide.

On top of all of that, a new study released yesterday found that young voters in Florida are some of the least politically engaged in the country. Even if Romney earns a large percentage of the young voters tonight, it's dangerous to assume he's finally won over the Republican youth. The key will be the raw numbers - how many young voters actually show up for Romney - and taking into account that young-voter favorite Ron Paul hasn't done one ounce of campaigning in the Sunshine State.

Take, for example, the speculation that the positive movement Newt Gingrich saw with young voters in South Carolina, which I then speculated could be the most encouraging statistic coming out of his primary victory. Just a week later, no one is arguing that Gingrich is poised to mobilize a mass of young voters in Florida (or anywhere for that matter).

In addition to wondering how young voters will turn out tonight, there are a few other important questions to consider:

• Will the endorsement of Puerto Rican Gov. Luis Fortuno propel Romney among Hispanic voters - who are truly the key demographic in Florida?
• If Romney earns more support among evangelicals than Gingrich (which the most recent polling is showing), does it completely devalidate the former Speaker of the House's victory in South Carolina?
• Ron Paul made the decision not to campaign in Florida, however, until last week, Rick Santorum was stumping in the Sunshine State. Santorum won't do well tonight, but will his performance be dismal enough for him to drop out?

But no matter what happens tonight in Florida, it's important not to jump to any conclusions (including conclusions about Ron Paul, who has long stated that he's banking on caucus states later on in the calender). 

Even once all of the votes are counted tonight, the vast majority of the GOP delegates will still be up for grabs (including 172 in California, 155 in Texas, 95 in New York, 76 in Georgia and 72 in Pennsylvania).

Alexander: So with this primary far from over, what is the best *long-term* strategy for favorites Gingrich and Romney to lock up the nomination based on the states who have yet to cast ballots?