Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Paul still the choice of young voters

As was the case in the days following Iowa, the most discouraging statistic following last night's New Hampshire primary is that, according to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, just 15 percent of eligible voters under the age of 30-years-old showed up.

That should have the GOP concerned — big time.

If we're to believe, as conventional wisdom and the major media outlets have jammed into our minds, that Ron Paul is not a legitimate candidate, then the GOP looks like it has no chance of capturing the young vote in 2012.

Look at the numbers. Paul boasted nearly 47 percent of young voters in New Hampshire — while Huntsman, the candidate who everyone who isn't a Republican has been trying to force on GOP voters, took home a measly 14 percent.

Any hope that young voters will rally around the former Utah governor is misguided (we'll see if he even has enough money for a plane ticket to South Carolina). After spending six months campaigning nowhere but in New Hampshire, Huntsman can spin his unconvincing third place finish however he'd like, but we know the truth.

As CNN contributor Roland Martin so elegantly put it last night: Huntsman has got to be drunk if he thinks he's still in this race.

But despite the hype that comes with being the first primary in the nation, some are speculating that the media frenzy is just that — a media frenzy.

In an interesting piece in the Washington Post today, columnist Dana Milbank concludes:

The New Hampshire primary just wasn’t much of a story.

And I agree.

Rather than creating a new narrative or tossing a fresh dynamic into the GOP race, last night's primary reaffirmed what we already know.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the key of GOPers is to rally the young energy behind the Paul campaign and bring those voters (oft labeled "tattooed and grungy college kids) into the Republican tent.

That could be the explanation for front runner Mitt Romney's avoidance of anything that could be taken as criticism of Paul. The victor in both Iowa and NH, Romney has what some have speculated is a non-aggression pact with Paul, and yesterday, the Texas congressman even came to Romney's defense against criticism being leveled at him by Huntsman.

For Romney, appeasing Paulites is a perfect strategy.

By avoiding soundbites slamming the aging Libertarian standard-barer, Romney places himself in a prime position to be on the receiving end of the delegates won by Paul through this spring's primaries.

What pundits keep forgetting is — in a primary that could last well into the cycle — Ron Paul could very well be the kingmaker. And Romney: he's eying the crown.

So tell me Alexander, is Huntsman finished (note that he's polling in 5th place in South Carolina)? What about other middle-of-the-pack candidates?

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