In my mind, a strong third place finish in Iowa and a convincing second spot in New Hampshire are all the proof we need to deem Paul's young support significant.
The most recent poll I've seen has the 76-year-old surging to 20 percent in South Carolina. For someone who Gingrich and Trump have publicly reamed as an unserious candidate, 20 percent among Republicans in a conservative state like South Carolina is impressive.
Other than Paulites, you're right: young voters have been largely quiet during this campaign cycle.
And that has nothing to do with this generation being any less engaged then their parents. I think it's actually much easier to explain.
Today's young voters are more moderate then the older generations. GOP wedge issues such as abortion and gay marriage are turnoffs for them. Meanwhile, they are more inclined to oppose preemptive wars and nation-building in the middle east.
It's impossible to name a viable GOP candidate (minus Paul) who in anyway lines up with those generally held views. Young voters see this Republican slate as largely representative of the GOP of old, a party with which most youth aren't eager to align.
As the Forbes article you cited points out, 2008 had TWO contentious primaries. It wasn't just Barack Obama who drove out the youth vote. Democratic candidates including Hillary Clinton and John Edwards were exciting young voters and the eventual Republican candidate John McCain had across-the-aisle appeal.
This year, there is no Democratic primary to turn out young liberals, plus the GOP in at least a dozen states to enact voter ID laws that would disenfranchise young (often minority) voters at pre-Civil Rights Act levels.
On top of that, the most untapped source of young supports lies with Hispanics, the nation's most rapidly expanding demographic. The GOP is making some efforts to court the Hispanic vote, especially in Florida, but as long as the Republican party pushes a hard line on amnesty and deportation - and continues to be on the wrong side of immigration issues on the state level (see the immigration policies championed by GOPers in Arizona and Alabama)
So, Alexander: with a push for tougher voter ID laws, the disenfranchisement of minority voters and the entrenched partisan views of the GOP frontrunners, can you blame young voters for not turning out for this field?
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