Friday, February 10, 2012

Focus on horserace only plays to advantage of Obama

As I've outlined, those results don't exist.

Which actually raises an interesting point — our over-reliance on horse race polls to quantify our political whims. Many states, especially the smaller, Midwestern and Western ones, aren't given the same attention by pollsters. In fact, no one is taking polls of Maine, which currently has its caucus underway.

Frankly, I don't know that it's a bad thing. With some many polls, pollsters and statistics out there it's easy for pundits to use a Google search to find "statistics" to back up pretty much any political assertion.

Exit polls can be equally unreliable.

So, if complete voter break downs from this week's contests is ever made available, I'm sure we'll be able to skew the numbers to evidence a Santorum surge among young people.

I'm not saying Santorum has no shot at the nomination. He's been somewhat of a hit at CPAC this week (although his polarizing comments about global warming and healthcare won't win him young support) and discontent with Romney among the GOP rank-and-file has never been stronger.

But as the GOP contenders to fail to excite young voters, and we and other pundits, continue make excuses for them and fabricate momentum swings, President Obama is solidifying his monopoly on the young vote.

He's continued to be the only person talking about student loan debt, and he's continuing to take moderate, non-partisan positions on controversial issues to strengthen his post-partisan campaign rhetoric.

In his FiveThirtyEight blog today, New York Times reporter Nate Silver lays out why Santorum may still have a shot at the nomination - relying largely on speculation.

But for now, we've got to traffic in the arena of facts and history — neither of which suggests Santorum has gained any young momentum, especially among Paul supporters.

I haven't heard, or seen on social media, a SINGLE young Ron Paul supporter declare that he or she is switching candidate alliances.

How about you, Alexander? Late Tuesday night you considered his victories a shakeup and speculated that his convincing wins in the heartland of Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri meant Ron Paul supporters could jump for the Santorum bandwagon. What evidence, if any, backs that up?

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