On Election Day, November 2012, how many young voters will 'come running back to Obama pretty quickly'?

Wesley, I think your analysis is sound.

I do still contend that Santorum would have a greater appeal than Romney to young people. The fact is *both* he and the ex-"Massachusetts Moderate" have staked out the most conservative ground this cycle. The difference, in my estimation, is that Santorum's blue-collar roots can better play to the middle-class. In other words, Santorum would vouch for populist causes more believably to voters than Romney. I gather we'll agree to disagree here.

Now to your question about the forecast for the 2012 campaign's 18-29 get-out-the-vote efforts. It's not impossible, even if it appears unlikely today, that young people will best their '08 performance at the ballot box. Yes, a more realistic bet is that millennials will vote at a relatively similar rate to that of 2008.

Conventional wisdom, amid continued economic hardship, is that youth turnout could slide from the 2008 presidential campaign. It's true: It will be more challenging to entice economically-strapped young people to the polls.

But if President Obama's re-election message connects with the pulse of America's youth and their economic condition, then the economy as a central focus could become a plus - not a minus - for unprecedented youth turnout. Let's not forget that young people still came out in record numbers as the financial markets crashed...and twentysomething joblessness and debt were spiraling out of control.

On The Tonight Show, HBO's political satirist Bill Maher may have explained why young people will still rally around Obama. Speaking on behalf of liberals (and his youth base), Maher said: "I don't think we ever stopped liking him. There's nothing that focuses the mind like this last year of seeing the Republicans. You see these people, and you run back to his arms pretty quickly."



Young voters may need to take pride in a new conviction in order to vote for Obama again en masse. With the election of the first black president, a promise of a post-racist or racial politics was realized. Now, will young people double-down on Obama for the promise of transformational politics that they believe he still embodies?

Wesley, what deeper aspiration may young people see in President Obama or his agenda that could motivate them to vote at a 2008 rate?