Thursday, February 16, 2012

Is mobilization of the youth vote in 2012 campaign an unrealistic hope?

Rick Santorum is no populist.

In fact, of the remaining GOP hopefuls, he is the only one who has no chance of moderating his stances and claiming the populist mantle.

Santorum's "true conservative" agenda is, in reality, a social issues agenda. He's spent more time on the campaign trail arguing that he's "more pro-life" than Ron Paul (a guy who delivers babies for a living) then he has talking about the national debt. And, at the end of the day, Santorum is the least qualified person to be discussing the economy.

The GOP must stick to the economy to top Obama, and an ousted former senator with no private sector experience isn't' the person to do that.

And as much as I'd love to believe that young voters have eagerly embraced the rhetoric that calls for paying down the national debt and that urges fiscal responsibility — we've been down this road before.

Remember when the GOP stormed into power during the mid-90s, promising fiscal responsibility and paying down the national debt? I do, a squirrely house whip named Gingrich was leading the charge.

Two decades later, our financial outlook is no better.

But all of that is besides the point. We can debate which issues would be best for Republicans to court young voters until we're blue in the face, but the fact remains: the candidates couldn't care less.

As political analyst Michael Barone opined in the Detroit News this week, Romney and the other GOP hopefuls haven't been speaking to young voters directly yet. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Meanwhile, Cheryl Russel writes for The New Republic that those looking for strong youth turnout shouldn't hold their breath.

It's true that the economy has shown signs of recovery in the past few months. The number of jobs is growing, and unemployment is down. But the nine months between now and Election Day are not enough to gestate a generation of youth and turn them into voting adults. It takes years to catch up. Studies show that those who graduate from college into a bad economy experience long-term wage losses— particularly after being underemployed— with lower earnings even six years after recovery. Those wage losses will likely continue to have an effect on marriage and homeownership rates, which will in turn have an effect on voter turnout.

It's a grim picture, and it almost (but not quite) guarantees that 18-to-29-year-olds will be less likely to vote in 2012 than in 2008. This is bad news for Obama, who will need the youth vote to win in November. It doesn't mean, of course, that he shouldn't try to recreate some of the enthusiasm he sparked among young voters in 2008— it just means he will be facing an uphill battle.

So is it that cut and dry? Will the nation's bleak economic factors mean youth turnout in 2012 will suffer?

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