In 2008, President Obama's landslide victory included successful courtship of Hispanics and large turnout on Election Day. Obama overcame historical, if only rumored, rivalry between black and Hispanic political forces. He won an unlikely alliance with the Hispanic community, which became a vital piece of his base in the proverbial demographic pie chart.
Now there is less enthusiasm, according to the Pew Research Center:
President’s Approval Rating Drops, but He Leads 2012 Rivals
As Deportations Rise to Record Levels, Most Latinos Oppose Obama’s PolicyAs Pew notes, however, Obama's Republican challengers are no more-Hispanic friendly. Our friend Alex Katz reported in the Boston Globe that "Hispanic voters overwhelmingly support Obama over GOP contenders."
You ask, Wes, what is the biggest factor that can meld the modern GOP into the party for (not against) Hispanics? They're going to have to better than "we love legal immigration," Romney's notoriously echoed (and repeated) taking point.
To maximize their potential to earn Hispanic cred in the general election, the Republicans need to survive the remainder of the primary without sounding any more xenophobic. Gingrich, specifically, will need to eliminate the food stamp issue from his political diatribe.
Second-generation children of immigration families will appreciate, perhaps even warm to, Gingrich's more compassionate and comprehensive attitude towards immigration than Romney, including desire to extend citizenship to undocumented residents who are long-standing, honorable members of American society).
But, historically, the Hispanic vote has slipped for Republican candidates who oppose economic intervention that aides their families. As the Associated Press recently reported, "In 2011, more than 45 million people — about one in seven Americans — received benefits from the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the most ever. Fewer than 31 million people collected the benefits about three years earlier."
Some of these recipients are Gen Y Hispanics, in Florida and elsewhere, and this reporting would suggest that economic solutions will trump memories of the Elian Gonzalez affair and the traditional GOP outrage against Cuba's Castro. If Gingrich can persuade Hispanic youth that he would create jobs better than Obama, than his vocal opposition to food stamps might have less consequence for these voters. But that's a huge IF.
In any case, many pundits arguing that Hispanics "hold the key" to the general election outcome. Wes, do you agree? Debate reactions, in the context of Florida's young and Hispanic, are to come.
UPDATE: My discussion of the 2012 campaign on FOX-25 (Boston) is below.
No comments:
Post a Comment