Sunday, January 22, 2012

GOP millennial view from S.C.: Gingrich's private life doesn't matter

Last night's results added more mystery to an already puzzling GOP primary showdown, the first in which a different candidate has won in each of the first three contests (Iowa, New Hampshire and now South Carolina).

First, to recap, exit polls indicate that young voters split across the South Carolina ballot in this fashion:

- Paul: 32%
- Gingrich: 27%
- Santorum: 22%
- Romney: 16%

Not only did Gingrich win with a surprisingly tall margin over standard-bearer Romney, he also came in second among young GOP voters. If there is one thing that these 18-30 results reaffirm, it's young people's general view that a candidate's private life, be it three marriages or closeted homosexuality, is just that...and does not determine the worth of a candidate.

(It is, nonetheless, difficult to understand how older devout Evangelicals swallowed "But, you wanted me all to yourself"...and reportedly delivering a speech on moral values after giving his wife an "open marriage" or divorce ultimatum.)

There is no doubt this will provoke a polling and, at least temporary fundraising surge for Gingrich. You ask if Gingrich can sustain the contributions in the money war to prevail against Romney: If he wins Florida, the money will flow just fine.

There are many Gingrich doubters based on his high unfavorable ratings. Many analysts have said they believe Romney would fare substantially better than Gingrich in a general election contest against President Obama.

This is not necessarily the case. First, the media may come to see Gingrich, if he plays his cards right, as a "big ideas" maverick a la McCain of 2000. (If he doesn't, he'll be the losing McCain of 2008.) He has challenged Obama to a series of seven Lincoln-Douglas debates, which would far better serve the democratic process than the premeditated commissioned debates.

To some, Gingrich will remain a dangerous quack. In some circles, he will stay much hated from the 90s. But to others, and perhaps to a majority of Americans who are being exposed to him for the first time, he come across as an unconventional statesman.

Romney, on the other hand, could never be the darling of the media. Both the media and voters believe he would say anything to be elected. This is the Gingrich general election advantage (one that could bode well for courting young people):

For an older man, he has far more charisma than McCain, and some of that *could* transcend party lines and age demographics. Wes, let me raise a more specific question for you on Gingrich and younger voters: How does he carve out a space for independent-minded youth (not just your twentysomething GOP delegate), still stun the Republican establishing with continued victories to secure the nomination and then position himself to appeal to disenchanted youth across D-R lines in the general election? 

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