Despite riding high after last night's South Carolina victory, Gingrich still lacks the campaign cash and organization to make him a sure shot in Florida and other upcoming nominating contests.
But I think Gingrich is employing a winning strategy in the Sunshine State. It's worth noting that young voters will have very little impact in Florida - so much so that Ron Paul acknowledges his college-aged supporter base won't do him much good in Florida and is skipping the state all together.
Young voters have made up more than 10 percent of the electorate in all three contests thus far this year. But, in 2008, only 7% of Florida's GOP primary voters were under the age of 30. I don't expect much change from that trend this time around, especially given strict voter id laws passed earlier this year.
The key in the Sunshine State will be the Hispanic vote.
Florida will be the first time Hispanic voters get to weigh in during this election cycle, in which immigration enforcement has been one of the issues at the forefront of candidate debates.
Although he's yet to establish a ground game as elaborated as he had in South Carolina, Gingrich has been the only candidate actively wooing Hispanic voters - who make up more than 22 percent of Miami-Dade County, which is a GOP stronghold.
Gingrich's courting of Hispanic voters is no secret. Back in December The Washington Post quoted numerous Democratic strategists who openly speculated that if Gingrich lands atop the GOP ticket he could deeply chip away President Obama's stranglehold on Hispanic voters.
"...some Democrats worry, Gingrich could attract Hispanic swing voters disappointed in Obama’s immigration or economic policies.“The possibility of a Gingrich nomination does scramble the deck, and it may mean that President Obama has to be more assertive on immigration issues,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, a liberal immigrant advocacy group.
Meanwhile, a strong GOP candidate whose is able to get his message to resonate with voters could upend the trend among Florida's Hispanic voters to lean to the left - specifically those of Puerto Rican descent. In fact, 2008 was a huge victory for Democrats - it was the first election cycle in which more Hispanic voters in Florida registered as Democrats then Republicans. (Politico published a detailed breakdown in the shifting demographics and political allegiances of Hispanic voters in Florida back in April).
Back in August, Gingrich outlined his plan for reaching Hispanic voters - who are a huge factor in important states beyond Florida, including Nevada, Colorado and Arizona.
Here's what he had to say:
Gingrich has yet to articulate detailed plans to address the issues most important to Hispanic voters - but the fact that he's talking about them at all gives him a huge leg up over his GOP counterparts.
But the biggest variable in the GOP candidates' abilities to connect with Hispanic voters may have nothing to do with them - and everything to do with who, if anyone, can court the support of two popular Hispanic leaders who've yet to endorse.
Popular Senator Marco Rubio has said he'll stay on the sidelines and not issue an endorsement in the GOP primary, meanwhile, Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuno has yet to throw his support behind any candidate.
If you don't know Fortuno's name, you'd be wise to familiarize yourself. Last summer I chronicled in The Wall Street Journal the epic housing and economic turnaround the articulate governor has overseen during his time leading Puerto Rico. A handful of GOP insiders I've spoken with include him on the VP shortlist - especially under a Gingrich or Paul candidacy.
So Alexander, what do you think is the biggest factor in winning the Hispanic vote for both the GOP primary candidates as well as for whoever is the eventual nominee?
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